Recent monsoon activity, including a low-pressure area and cyclonic circulation over the Bay of Bengal, sustains high humidity and variable cloud cover across Uttar Pradesh, keeping overnight radiative cooling limited and anchoring minimum temperatures near 26–27°C for Lucknow on September 18. Official forecasts from the India Meteorological Department and ensemble models indicate partly cloudy skies with 40–60% thunderstorm chances, which could suppress lows toward 25°C or allow brief clearer periods pushing them to 28°C depending on timing of precipitation and wind patterns. Trader sentiment reflects this narrow uncertainty band, with closely matched probabilities around 26°C versus lower or higher thresholds driven by model divergence on nocturnal cloud persistence and dew point depression rather than major synoptic shifts. Updated IMD briefings and next model runs will likely refine the exact minimum before resolution.