Persistent cloud cover and widespread rain associated with a slow-moving low-pressure system are limiting nighttime radiative cooling over Tokyo, supporting minimum temperatures of 24–25°C on September 8. Official guidance and ensemble model runs show early-morning readings clustered near 23–26°C amid high humidity and southerly flow, with only modest diurnal drops expected under mostly overcast skies. Recent observations confirm elevated dew points near 24°C that further suppress cooling rates. Traders have placed the strongest implied probability on 24°C (42.5%), reflecting this consensus while allowing for small downward revisions if breaks in the clouds develop overnight. Updated Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and next model cycles will provide the key near-term signals for any shift in these odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月8日东京气温最低？
9月8日东京气温最低？
24°C 42%
25°C 33%
23°C 14%
22°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-09-08
20°C或以下
1%
21°C
4%
22°C
7%
23°C
14%
24°C
42%
25°C
33%
26°C
7%
27°C
6%
28°C
2%
29°C
<1%
30°C或更高
<1%
24°C 42%
25°C 33%
23°C 14%
22°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-09-08
20°C或以下
$393 交易量
1%
21°C
$174 交易量
4%
22°C
$20 交易量
7%
23°C
$405 交易量
14%
24°C
$542 交易量
42%
25°C
$296 交易量
33%
26°C
$796 交易量
7%
27°C
$341 交易量
6%
28°C
$0 交易量
2%
29°C
$149 交易量
<1%
30°C或更高
$138 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent cloud cover and widespread rain associated with a slow-moving low-pressure system are limiting nighttime radiative cooling over Tokyo, supporting minimum temperatures of 24–25°C on September 8. Official guidance and ensemble model runs show early-morning readings clustered near 23–26°C amid high humidity and southerly flow, with only modest diurnal drops expected under mostly overcast skies. Recent observations confirm elevated dew points near 24°C that further suppress cooling rates. Traders have placed the strongest implied probability on 24°C (42.5%), reflecting this consensus while allowing for small downward revisions if breaks in the clouds develop overnight. Updated Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and next model cycles will provide the key near-term signals for any shift in these odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 6, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
交易量
$3,255结束日期
2026-09-08市场开放时间
Sep 6, 2026, 12:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent cloud cover and widespread rain associated with a slow-moving low-pressure system are limiting nighttime radiative cooling over Tokyo, supporting minimum temperatures of 24–25°C on September 8. Official guidance and ensemble model runs show early-morning readings clustered near 23–26°C amid high humidity and southerly flow, with only modest diurnal drops expected under mostly overcast skies. Recent observations confirm elevated dew points near 24°C that further suppress cooling rates. Traders have placed the strongest implied probability on 24°C (42.5%), reflecting this consensus while allowing for small downward revisions if breaks in the clouds develop overnight. Updated Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and next model cycles will provide the key near-term signals for any shift in these odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$3,255结束日期
2026-09-08市场开放时间
Sep 6, 2026, 12:29 AM ETPersistent cloud cover and widespread rain associated with a slow-moving low-pressure system are limiting nighttime radiative cooling over Tokyo, supporting minimum temperatures of 24–25°C on September 8. Official guidance and ensemble model runs show early-morning readings clustered near 23–26°C amid high humidity and southerly flow, with only modest diurnal drops expected under mostly overcast skies. Recent observations confirm elevated dew points near 24°C that further suppress cooling rates. Traders have placed the strongest implied probability on 24°C (42.5%), reflecting this consensus while allowing for small downward revisions if breaks in the clouds develop overnight. Updated Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and next model cycles will provide the key near-term signals for any shift in these odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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