Anthropic’s June 2026 launch of the public Claude Fable 5 and restricted Mythos 5 variants established the current Mythos-class baseline on the arena.ai Text leaderboard, where Fable 5 currently sits near 1507 Elo. With no official announcements, leaks, or capability demonstrations since then, trader sentiment centers on the lab’s typical three-to-five-month cadence for frontier releases, tempered by extended safety reviews for agentic and cybersecurity features, compute availability, and regulatory constraints on high-risk capabilities. The December 31, 2026 resolution deadline leaves room for a late-year debut or delays if internal testing or government oversight extends. Market-implied odds across score thresholds reflect expectations that any successor will need measurable gains over Fable 5 to shift the leaderboard meaningfully.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
$14,125 交易量
2026-12-31
1470+
93%
1480+
88%
1490+
80%
1500+
54%
1510+
14%
$14,125 交易量
1470+
$2,231 交易量
93%
1480+
$742 交易量
88%
1490+
$4,994 交易量
80%
1500+
$2,889 交易量
54%
1510+
$3,269 交易量
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Mythos-class model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or "Fable" (e.g., Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Fable 6), or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution. Anthropic's other model tiers, such as Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku, will not qualify.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered.
If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s June 2026 launch of the public Claude Fable 5 and restricted Mythos 5 variants established the current Mythos-class baseline on the arena.ai Text leaderboard, where Fable 5 currently sits near 1507 Elo. With no official announcements, leaks, or capability demonstrations since then, trader sentiment centers on the lab’s typical three-to-five-month cadence for frontier releases, tempered by extended safety reviews for agentic and cybersecurity features, compute availability, and regulatory constraints on high-risk capabilities. The December 31, 2026 resolution deadline leaves room for a late-year debut or delays if internal testing or government oversight extends. Market-implied odds across score thresholds reflect expectations that any successor will need measurable gains over Fable 5 to shift the leaderboard meaningfully.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Mythos-class model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or "Fable" (e.g., Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Fable 6), or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution. Anthropic's other model tiers, such as Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku, will not qualify.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered.
If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or "Fable" (e.g., Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Fable 6), or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution. Anthropic's other model tiers, such as Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku, will not qualify.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered.
If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
市场开放时间： Aug 27, 2026, 6:39 PM ET
交易量
$14,125结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Aug 27, 2026, 6:39 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Mythos-class model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or "Fable" (e.g., Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Fable 6), or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution. Anthropic's other model tiers, such as Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku, will not qualify.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered.
If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s June 2026 launch of the public Claude Fable 5 and restricted Mythos 5 variants established the current Mythos-class baseline on the arena.ai Text leaderboard, where Fable 5 currently sits near 1507 Elo. With no official announcements, leaks, or capability demonstrations since then, trader sentiment centers on the lab’s typical three-to-five-month cadence for frontier releases, tempered by extended safety reviews for agentic and cybersecurity features, compute availability, and regulatory constraints on high-risk capabilities. The December 31, 2026 resolution deadline leaves room for a late-year debut or delays if internal testing or government oversight extends. Market-implied odds across score thresholds reflect expectations that any successor will need measurable gains over Fable 5 to shift the leaderboard meaningfully.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Mythos-class model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or "Fable" (e.g., Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Fable 6), or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution. Anthropic's other model tiers, such as Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku, will not qualify.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered.
If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or "Fable" (e.g., Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Fable 6), or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution. Anthropic's other model tiers, such as Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku, will not qualify.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered.
If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$14,125结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Aug 27, 2026, 6:39 PM ETAnthropic’s June 2026 launch of the public Claude Fable 5 and restricted Mythos 5 variants established the current Mythos-class baseline on the arena.ai Text leaderboard, where Fable 5 currently sits near 1507 Elo. With no official announcements, leaks, or capability demonstrations since then, trader sentiment centers on the lab’s typical three-to-five-month cadence for frontier releases, tempered by extended safety reviews for agentic and cybersecurity features, compute availability, and regulatory constraints on high-risk capabilities. The December 31, 2026 resolution deadline leaves room for a late-year debut or delays if internal testing or government oversight extends. Market-implied odds across score thresholds reflect expectations that any successor will need measurable gains over Fable 5 to shift the leaderboard meaningfully.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题