North Korea has conducted two short-range ballistic missile launches in August 2026, both from the Wonsan area on August 6 and August 12, according to South Korean, Japanese, and U.S. assessments. Trader consensus favoring three or more tests by month-end reflects Pyongyang’s established pattern of increasing launch activity in response to annual U.S.-South Korea joint exercises, including the Ulchi Freedom Shield drills running from August 17–27, which North Korea routinely denounces as provocative. With roughly two weeks remaining and no additional tests reported since August 12, implied probabilities incorporate the potential for further signaling amid ongoing regional tensions and weapons development priorities. Historical precedent during similar military drills supports expectations of additional activity before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$65,630 交易量
$65,630 交易量
2026-08-31
2
35%
3+
65%
$65,630 交易量
$65,630 交易量
2026-08-31
2
$12,456 交易量
35%
3+
$18,261 交易量
65%
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during August 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.North Korea has conducted two short-range ballistic missile launches in August 2026, both from the Wonsan area on August 6 and August 12, according to South Korean, Japanese, and U.S. assessments. Trader consensus favoring three or more tests by month-end reflects Pyongyang’s established pattern of increasing launch activity in response to annual U.S.-South Korea joint exercises, including the Ulchi Freedom Shield drills running from August 17–27, which North Korea routinely denounces as provocative. With roughly two weeks remaining and no additional tests reported since August 12, implied probabilities incorporate the potential for further signaling amid ongoing regional tensions and weapons development priorities. Historical precedent during similar military drills supports expectations of additional activity before resolution.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during August 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
市场开放时间： Jul 31, 2026, 2:15 PM ET
交易量
$65,630结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Jul 31, 2026, 2:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during August 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.North Korea has conducted two short-range ballistic missile launches in August 2026, both from the Wonsan area on August 6 and August 12, according to South Korean, Japanese, and U.S. assessments. Trader consensus favoring three or more tests by month-end reflects Pyongyang’s established pattern of increasing launch activity in response to annual U.S.-South Korea joint exercises, including the Ulchi Freedom Shield drills running from August 17–27, which North Korea routinely denounces as provocative. With roughly two weeks remaining and no additional tests reported since August 12, implied probabilities incorporate the potential for further signaling amid ongoing regional tensions and weapons development priorities. Historical precedent during similar military drills supports expectations of additional activity before resolution.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during August 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
交易量
$65,630结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Jul 31, 2026, 2:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...North Korea has conducted two short-range ballistic missile launches in August 2026, both from the Wonsan area on August 6 and August 12, according to South Korean, Japanese, and U.S. assessments. Trader consensus favoring three or more tests by month-end reflects Pyongyang’s established pattern of increasing launch activity in response to annual U.S.-South Korea joint exercises, including the Ulchi Freedom Shield drills running from August 17–27, which North Korea routinely denounces as provocative. With roughly two weeks remaining and no additional tests reported since August 12, implied probabilities incorporate the potential for further signaling amid ongoing regional tensions and weapons development priorities. Historical precedent during similar military drills supports expectations of additional activity before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题