Democratic incumbent Laura Gillen holds a strong position in New York’s 4th congressional district, a Nassau County seat with a Partisan Voter Index of D+2 that she flipped from Republican control in 2024. She advanced from the June 2026 Democratic primary and faces Republican nominee Jeanine Driscoll in the November general election. Nonpartisan race ratings from Cook, Decision Desk HQ, and others classify the contest as Lean or Likely Democratic, citing Gillen’s incumbency, the district’s suburban voter base, and limited Republican momentum since the 2024 cycle. Prediction market pricing aligns with these structural factors and the absence of major late developments that would alter the balance before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
87%
共和党
14%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$1,839 交易量
87%
共和党
$987 交易量
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Laura Gillen holds a strong position in New York’s 4th congressional district, a Nassau County seat with a Partisan Voter Index of D+2 that she flipped from Republican control in 2024. She advanced from the June 2026 Democratic primary and faces Republican nominee Jeanine Driscoll in the November general election. Nonpartisan race ratings from Cook, Decision Desk HQ, and others classify the contest as Lean or Likely Democratic, citing Gillen’s incumbency, the district’s suburban voter base, and limited Republican momentum since the 2024 cycle. Prediction market pricing aligns with these structural factors and the absence of major late developments that would alter the balance before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
交易量
$2,826结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Laura Gillen holds a strong position in New York’s 4th congressional district, a Nassau County seat with a Partisan Voter Index of D+2 that she flipped from Republican control in 2024. She advanced from the June 2026 Democratic primary and faces Republican nominee Jeanine Driscoll in the November general election. Nonpartisan race ratings from Cook, Decision Desk HQ, and others classify the contest as Lean or Likely Democratic, citing Gillen’s incumbency, the district’s suburban voter base, and limited Republican momentum since the 2024 cycle. Prediction market pricing aligns with these structural factors and the absence of major late developments that would alter the balance before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$2,826结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Laura Gillen holds a strong position in New York’s 4th congressional district, a Nassau County seat with a Partisan Voter Index of D+2 that she flipped from Republican control in 2024. She advanced from the June 2026 Democratic primary and faces Republican nominee Jeanine Driscoll in the November general election. Nonpartisan race ratings from Cook, Decision Desk HQ, and others classify the contest as Lean or Likely Democratic, citing Gillen’s incumbency, the district’s suburban voter base, and limited Republican momentum since the 2024 cycle. Prediction market pricing aligns with these structural factors and the absence of major late developments that would alter the balance before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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