Turkey’s ruling AKP holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-seat parliament, short of the 360 needed to trigger a constitutional referendum, with opposition parties resisting changes and public polling showing limited support for adjustments such as term-limit extensions. A presidential commission appointed in May 2025 has continued preparatory drafting work on a new civilian charter, often linked to broader national unity or Kurdish peace initiatives, yet cross-party talks remain stalled amid competing legislative priorities. Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş has publicly projected possible adoption in 2026–2027, but no official referendum announcement or required majority has materialized by mid-August 2026. Traders therefore assign an 86.5% implied probability to “No,” reflecting the structural and political barriers that have prevented formal advancement within the calendar year.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于13% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
13% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s ruling AKP holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-seat parliament, short of the 360 needed to trigger a constitutional referendum, with opposition parties resisting changes and public polling showing limited support for adjustments such as term-limit extensions. A presidential commission appointed in May 2025 has continued preparatory drafting work on a new civilian charter, often linked to broader national unity or Kurdish peace initiatives, yet cross-party talks remain stalled amid competing legislative priorities. Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş has publicly projected possible adoption in 2026–2027, but no official referendum announcement or required majority has materialized by mid-August 2026. Traders therefore assign an 86.5% implied probability to “No,” reflecting the structural and political barriers that have prevented formal advancement within the calendar year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
交易量
$6,734结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s ruling AKP holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-seat parliament, short of the 360 needed to trigger a constitutional referendum, with opposition parties resisting changes and public polling showing limited support for adjustments such as term-limit extensions. A presidential commission appointed in May 2025 has continued preparatory drafting work on a new civilian charter, often linked to broader national unity or Kurdish peace initiatives, yet cross-party talks remain stalled amid competing legislative priorities. Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş has publicly projected possible adoption in 2026–2027, but no official referendum announcement or required majority has materialized by mid-August 2026. Traders therefore assign an 86.5% implied probability to “No,” reflecting the structural and political barriers that have prevented formal advancement within the calendar year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$6,734结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Turkey’s ruling AKP holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-seat parliament, short of the 360 needed to trigger a constitutional referendum, with opposition parties resisting changes and public polling showing limited support for adjustments such as term-limit extensions. A presidential commission appointed in May 2025 has continued preparatory drafting work on a new civilian charter, often linked to broader national unity or Kurdish peace initiatives, yet cross-party talks remain stalled amid competing legislative priorities. Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş has publicly projected possible adoption in 2026–2027, but no official referendum announcement or required majority has materialized by mid-August 2026. Traders therefore assign an 86.5% implied probability to “No,” reflecting the structural and political barriers that have prevented formal advancement within the calendar year.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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