Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to UK Q1 2026 real GDP growth of 0.9-1.2% quarter-on-quarter, propelled by robust early-year monthly data from the Office for National Statistics. February 2026 saw 0.5% monthly expansion—the strongest in over two years—following January's three-month growth revised up to 0.3%, with services output surging 0.8% on household consumption (up 0.6%) and wholesale/retail strength. This momentum, amid steady Bank of England rates at 5.25% and moderating inflation, underpins the lockstep positioning ahead of today's preliminary quarterly estimate. Potential challenges include a downside surprise in the ONS print or revisions, geopolitical shocks like the Iran conflict eroding activity, or softer March indicators shifting probabilities lower.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于0.9-1.2% 100.0%
负数 <1%
0.0-0.3% <1%
0.3-0.6% <1%
$53,225 交易量
$53,225 交易量
2026-05-14
负数
否
0.0-0.3%
否
0.3-0.6%
否
0.6-0.9%
否
0.9-1.2%
是
1.2-1.5%
否
1.5-1.8%
否
1.8%以上
否
0.9-1.2% 100.0%
负数 <1%
0.0-0.3% <1%
0.3-0.6% <1%
$53,225 交易量
$53,225 交易量
2026-05-14
负数
$6,997 交易量
否
0.0-0.3%
$11,247 交易量
否
0.3-0.6%
$4,651 交易量
否
0.6-0.9%
$16,309 交易量
否
0.9-1.2%
$4,902 交易量
是
1.2-1.5%
$3,810 交易量
否
1.5-1.8%
$1,654 交易量
否
1.8%以上
$3,654 交易量
否
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to UK Q1 2026 real GDP growth of 0.9-1.2% quarter-on-quarter, propelled by robust early-year monthly data from the Office for National Statistics. February 2026 saw 0.5% monthly expansion—the strongest in over two years—following January's three-month growth revised up to 0.3%, with services output surging 0.8% on household consumption (up 0.6%) and wholesale/retail strength. This momentum, amid steady Bank of England rates at 5.25% and moderating inflation, underpins the lockstep positioning ahead of today's preliminary quarterly estimate. Potential challenges include a downside surprise in the ONS print or revisions, geopolitical shocks like the Iran conflict eroding activity, or softer March indicators shifting probabilities lower.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
交易量
$53,225结束日期
2026-05-14市场开放时间
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to UK Q1 2026 real GDP growth of 0.9-1.2% quarter-on-quarter, propelled by robust early-year monthly data from the Office for National Statistics. February 2026 saw 0.5% monthly expansion—the strongest in over two years—following January's three-month growth revised up to 0.3%, with services output surging 0.8% on household consumption (up 0.6%) and wholesale/retail strength. This momentum, amid steady Bank of England rates at 5.25% and moderating inflation, underpins the lockstep positioning ahead of today's preliminary quarterly estimate. Potential challenges include a downside surprise in the ONS print or revisions, geopolitical shocks like the Iran conflict eroding activity, or softer March indicators shifting probabilities lower.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$53,225结束日期
2026-05-14市场开放时间
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to UK Q1 2026 real GDP growth of 0.9-1.2% quarter-on-quarter, propelled by robust early-year monthly data from the Office for National Statistics. February 2026 saw 0.5% monthly expansion—the strongest in over two years—following January's three-month growth revised up to 0.3%, with services output surging 0.8% on household consumption (up 0.6%) and wholesale/retail strength. This momentum, amid steady Bank of England rates at 5.25% and moderating inflation, underpins the lockstep positioning ahead of today's preliminary quarterly estimate. Potential challenges include a downside surprise in the ONS print or revisions, geopolitical shocks like the Iran conflict eroding activity, or softer March indicators shifting probabilities lower.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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