Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have sustained elevated and volatile energy prices, weighing on UK household spending and business costs amid already subdued surveys and a loosening labor market with unemployment at 4.9%. Q2 2026 preliminary GDP rose 0.4% QoQ, but forward-looking indicators point to moderation, with the Bank of England holding Bank Rate at 3.75% and inflation at 2.6% in June. These factors underpin the tightly clustered Polymarket probabilities around flat-to-moderate expansion, where trader capital reflects uncertainty over Q3 outcomes. Key upcoming releases include July inflation data, monthly GDP estimates, and the September 17 MPC decision.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于0.0–0.1% 29%
0.4–0.5% 26%
0.2–0.3% 21%
负增长 21%
最新
最新
2026-11-12
负增长
22%
0.0–0.1%
29%
0.2–0.3%
21%
0.4–0.5%
26%
0.6–0.7%
7%
0.8–0.9%
4%
1.0%及以上
4%
0.0–0.1% 29%
0.4–0.5% 26%
0.2–0.3% 21%
负增长 21%
最新
最新
2026-11-12
负增长
$1,891 交易量
22%
0.0–0.1%
$198 交易量
29%
0.2–0.3%
$1,389 交易量
21%
0.4–0.5%
$606 交易量
26%
0.6–0.7%
$158 交易量
7%
0.8–0.9%
$139 交易量
4%
1.0%及以上
$139 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have sustained elevated and volatile energy prices, weighing on UK household spending and business costs amid already subdued surveys and a loosening labor market with unemployment at 4.9%. Q2 2026 preliminary GDP rose 0.4% QoQ, but forward-looking indicators point to moderation, with the Bank of England holding Bank Rate at 3.75% and inflation at 2.6% in June. These factors underpin the tightly clustered Polymarket probabilities around flat-to-moderate expansion, where trader capital reflects uncertainty over Q3 outcomes. Key upcoming releases include July inflation data, monthly GDP estimates, and the September 17 MPC decision.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
市场开放时间： Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ET
交易量
$4,520结束日期
2026-11-12市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have sustained elevated and volatile energy prices, weighing on UK household spending and business costs amid already subdued surveys and a loosening labor market with unemployment at 4.9%. Q2 2026 preliminary GDP rose 0.4% QoQ, but forward-looking indicators point to moderation, with the Bank of England holding Bank Rate at 3.75% and inflation at 2.6% in June. These factors underpin the tightly clustered Polymarket probabilities around flat-to-moderate expansion, where trader capital reflects uncertainty over Q3 outcomes. Key upcoming releases include July inflation data, monthly GDP estimates, and the September 17 MPC decision.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
交易量
$4,520结束日期
2026-11-12市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have sustained elevated and volatile energy prices, weighing on UK household spending and business costs amid already subdued surveys and a loosening labor market with unemployment at 4.9%. Q2 2026 preliminary GDP rose 0.4% QoQ, but forward-looking indicators point to moderation, with the Bank of England holding Bank Rate at 3.75% and inflation at 2.6% in June. These factors underpin the tightly clustered Polymarket probabilities around flat-to-moderate expansion, where trader capital reflects uncertainty over Q3 outcomes. Key upcoming releases include July inflation data, monthly GDP estimates, and the September 17 MPC decision.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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