Recent isolated failures of small institutions like Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January and Community Bank & Trust – West Georgia in May reflect firm-specific capital and operational weaknesses rather than systemic stress, supporting the 60.5% market-implied odds against an additional failure by June 30. With just 16 days remaining and no evident deterioration in broader credit metrics or deposit outflows, trader consensus prices in continuity of the FDIC's swift resolution pattern. The June 24 release of Federal Reserve stress-test results represents the primary near-term catalyst that could either reinforce stability or flag vulnerabilities at larger banks, though historical base rates of low-frequency failures in stable periods continue to anchor probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-06-30
最新
最新
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Recent isolated failures of small institutions like Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January and Community Bank & Trust – West Georgia in May reflect firm-specific capital and operational weaknesses rather than systemic stress, supporting the 60.5% market-implied odds against an additional failure by June 30. With just 16 days remaining and no evident deterioration in broader credit metrics or deposit outflows, trader consensus prices in continuity of the FDIC's swift resolution pattern. The June 24 release of Federal Reserve stress-test results represents the primary near-term catalyst that could either reinforce stability or flag vulnerabilities at larger banks, though historical base rates of low-frequency failures in stable periods continue to anchor probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
市场开放时间： May 26, 2026, 6:36 PM ET
交易量
$7,282结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
May 26, 2026, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Recent isolated failures of small institutions like Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January and Community Bank & Trust – West Georgia in May reflect firm-specific capital and operational weaknesses rather than systemic stress, supporting the 60.5% market-implied odds against an additional failure by June 30. With just 16 days remaining and no evident deterioration in broader credit metrics or deposit outflows, trader consensus prices in continuity of the FDIC's swift resolution pattern. The June 24 release of Federal Reserve stress-test results represents the primary near-term catalyst that could either reinforce stability or flag vulnerabilities at larger banks, though historical base rates of low-frequency failures in stable periods continue to anchor probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
交易量
$7,282结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
May 26, 2026, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent isolated failures of small institutions like Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January and Community Bank & Trust – West Georgia in May reflect firm-specific capital and operational weaknesses rather than systemic stress, supporting the 60.5% market-implied odds against an additional failure by June 30. With just 16 days remaining and no evident deterioration in broader credit metrics or deposit outflows, trader consensus prices in continuity of the FDIC's swift resolution pattern. The June 24 release of Federal Reserve stress-test results represents the primary near-term catalyst that could either reinforce stability or flag vulnerabilities at larger banks, though historical base rates of low-frequency failures in stable periods continue to anchor probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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