Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89% implied probability against a US bank failure by May 31, reflecting the sector's robust aggregate capital buffers and lack of systemic distress signals following two isolated small-bank closures earlier in 2026. Metropolitan Capital Bank shuttered on January 30 due to concentrated credit losses, while Community Bank and Trust-West Georgia failed May 1 from firm-specific issues, with Anchor Bank assuming $288 million in deposits at a $97 million FDIC cost—no contagion ensued. The Federal Reserve's May 2026 Financial Stability Report notes elevated but manageable vulnerabilities like commercial real estate exposure amid steady Treasury yields and supportive monetary policy. With just over two weeks remaining, no imminent catalysts like weak Q1 earnings revisions or liquidity strains have emerged to alter this skin-in-the-game sentiment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-05-31
最新
最新
2026-05-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89% implied probability against a US bank failure by May 31, reflecting the sector's robust aggregate capital buffers and lack of systemic distress signals following two isolated small-bank closures earlier in 2026. Metropolitan Capital Bank shuttered on January 30 due to concentrated credit losses, while Community Bank and Trust-West Georgia failed May 1 from firm-specific issues, with Anchor Bank assuming $288 million in deposits at a $97 million FDIC cost—no contagion ensued. The Federal Reserve's May 2026 Financial Stability Report notes elevated but manageable vulnerabilities like commercial real estate exposure amid steady Treasury yields and supportive monetary policy. With just over two weeks remaining, no imminent catalysts like weak Q1 earnings revisions or liquidity strains have emerged to alter this skin-in-the-game sentiment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
市场开放时间： May 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
交易量
$6,500结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
May 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89% implied probability against a US bank failure by May 31, reflecting the sector's robust aggregate capital buffers and lack of systemic distress signals following two isolated small-bank closures earlier in 2026. Metropolitan Capital Bank shuttered on January 30 due to concentrated credit losses, while Community Bank and Trust-West Georgia failed May 1 from firm-specific issues, with Anchor Bank assuming $288 million in deposits at a $97 million FDIC cost—no contagion ensued. The Federal Reserve's May 2026 Financial Stability Report notes elevated but manageable vulnerabilities like commercial real estate exposure amid steady Treasury yields and supportive monetary policy. With just over two weeks remaining, no imminent catalysts like weak Q1 earnings revisions or liquidity strains have emerged to alter this skin-in-the-game sentiment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
交易量
$6,500结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
May 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89% implied probability against a US bank failure by May 31, reflecting the sector's robust aggregate capital buffers and lack of systemic distress signals following two isolated small-bank closures earlier in 2026. Metropolitan Capital Bank shuttered on January 30 due to concentrated credit losses, while Community Bank and Trust-West Georgia failed May 1 from firm-specific issues, with Anchor Bank assuming $288 million in deposits at a $97 million FDIC cost—no contagion ensued. The Federal Reserve's May 2026 Financial Stability Report notes elevated but manageable vulnerabilities like commercial real estate exposure amid steady Treasury yields and supportive monetary policy. With just over two weeks remaining, no imminent catalysts like weak Q1 earnings revisions or liquidity strains have emerged to alter this skin-in-the-game sentiment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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