The recent $5 trillion debt limit increase enacted in 2025 through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act has provided substantial borrowing headroom, with outstanding debt near $40 trillion as of September 2026. Projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center and others place the next statutory limit contact in spring or summer 2027, followed by six to nine months of Treasury extraordinary measures that extend the X-date well beyond 2027. Congress has consistently resolved prior standoffs through raises or suspensions before any payment failure, and current Treasury cash management plus ongoing debt operations reinforce market expectations of continuity. A default by end-2026 would require an unprecedented breakdown in legislative processes or sudden fiscal shock far beyond baseline forecasts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于到2027年美国债务违约？
到2027年美国债务违约？
是
3% 概率
$18,051 交易量
$18,051 交易量
2026-12-30
是
3% 概率
$18,051 交易量
$18,051 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The recent $5 trillion debt limit increase enacted in 2025 through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act has provided substantial borrowing headroom, with outstanding debt near $40 trillion as of September 2026. Projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center and others place the next statutory limit contact in spring or summer 2027, followed by six to nine months of Treasury extraordinary measures that extend the X-date well beyond 2027. Congress has consistently resolved prior standoffs through raises or suspensions before any payment failure, and current Treasury cash management plus ongoing debt operations reinforce market expectations of continuity. A default by end-2026 would require an unprecedented breakdown in legislative processes or sudden fiscal shock far beyond baseline forecasts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
交易量
$18,051结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The recent $5 trillion debt limit increase enacted in 2025 through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act has provided substantial borrowing headroom, with outstanding debt near $40 trillion as of September 2026. Projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center and others place the next statutory limit contact in spring or summer 2027, followed by six to nine months of Treasury extraordinary measures that extend the X-date well beyond 2027. Congress has consistently resolved prior standoffs through raises or suspensions before any payment failure, and current Treasury cash management plus ongoing debt operations reinforce market expectations of continuity. A default by end-2026 would require an unprecedented breakdown in legislative processes or sudden fiscal shock far beyond baseline forecasts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
交易量
$18,051结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETThe recent $5 trillion debt limit increase enacted in 2025 through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act has provided substantial borrowing headroom, with outstanding debt near $40 trillion as of September 2026. Projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center and others place the next statutory limit contact in spring or summer 2027, followed by six to nine months of Treasury extraordinary measures that extend the X-date well beyond 2027. Congress has consistently resolved prior standoffs through raises or suspensions before any payment failure, and current Treasury cash management plus ongoing debt operations reinforce market expectations of continuity. A default by end-2026 would require an unprecedented breakdown in legislative processes or sudden fiscal shock far beyond baseline forecasts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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