Traders assign a 97.2% probability to no U.S. default by the end of 2026 because Congress has historically raised or suspended the debt limit before the X-date arrives, and the most recent $5 trillion increase from 2025 provides runway into 2027. Treasury extraordinary measures, cash reserves, and the political costs of disrupting Treasury markets or triggering recession further reinforce this consensus. The Bipartisan Policy Center and other projections place the next borrowing limit contact in spring or summer 2027, with several months of buffer before any payment failure. While prolonged brinkmanship or unforeseen fiscal shocks could test this outcome, the strong incentive for both parties to avoid default on dollar-denominated obligations sustains the current market pricing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于到2027年美国债务违约？
到2027年美国债务违约？
是
3% 概率
$18,051 交易量
$18,051 交易量
2026-12-30
是
3% 概率
$18,051 交易量
$18,051 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 97.2% probability to no U.S. default by the end of 2026 because Congress has historically raised or suspended the debt limit before the X-date arrives, and the most recent $5 trillion increase from 2025 provides runway into 2027. Treasury extraordinary measures, cash reserves, and the political costs of disrupting Treasury markets or triggering recession further reinforce this consensus. The Bipartisan Policy Center and other projections place the next borrowing limit contact in spring or summer 2027, with several months of buffer before any payment failure. While prolonged brinkmanship or unforeseen fiscal shocks could test this outcome, the strong incentive for both parties to avoid default on dollar-denominated obligations sustains the current market pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
交易量
$18,051结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 97.2% probability to no U.S. default by the end of 2026 because Congress has historically raised or suspended the debt limit before the X-date arrives, and the most recent $5 trillion increase from 2025 provides runway into 2027. Treasury extraordinary measures, cash reserves, and the political costs of disrupting Treasury markets or triggering recession further reinforce this consensus. The Bipartisan Policy Center and other projections place the next borrowing limit contact in spring or summer 2027, with several months of buffer before any payment failure. While prolonged brinkmanship or unforeseen fiscal shocks could test this outcome, the strong incentive for both parties to avoid default on dollar-denominated obligations sustains the current market pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
交易量
$18,051结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETTraders assign a 97.2% probability to no U.S. default by the end of 2026 because Congress has historically raised or suspended the debt limit before the X-date arrives, and the most recent $5 trillion increase from 2025 provides runway into 2027. Treasury extraordinary measures, cash reserves, and the political costs of disrupting Treasury markets or triggering recession further reinforce this consensus. The Bipartisan Policy Center and other projections place the next borrowing limit contact in spring or summer 2027, with several months of buffer before any payment failure. While prolonged brinkmanship or unforeseen fiscal shocks could test this outcome, the strong incentive for both parties to avoid default on dollar-denominated obligations sustains the current market pricing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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