Recent monthly U.S. trade data show the goods and services deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with first-half cumulative gaps running well below 2025 levels after earlier tariff-driven import front-loading. This normalization, alongside moderating import growth in capital and consumer goods, supports trader positioning around an $800–900 billion full-year outcome as the modal range. Persistent U.S. demand for imported industrial supplies and pharmaceuticals, combined with gradual export recovery in services, keeps the 700–800 billion bucket as the next most favored while capping tail risks above $1 trillion. Key upcoming releases, including July and August figures plus any further trade policy signals, will influence revisions to these implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$24,009 交易量
$24,009 交易量
2027-02-28
少于5000亿
3%
5000亿–6000亿
5%
6000亿–7000亿美元
9%
7000亿–8000亿
28%
8,000亿–9,000亿
42%
9000亿–1万亿
15%
1万亿–1.1万亿
5%
1.1万亿美元以上
5%
$24,009 交易量
$24,009 交易量
2027-02-28
少于5000亿
$16,848 交易量
3%
5000亿–6000亿
$454 交易量
5%
6000亿–7000亿美元
$543 交易量
9%
7000亿–8000亿
$670 交易量
28%
8,000亿–9,000亿
$1,519 交易量
42%
9000亿–1万亿
$1,397 交易量
15%
1万亿–1.1万亿
$1,458 交易量
5%
1.1万亿美元以上
$1,119 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. trade data show the goods and services deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with first-half cumulative gaps running well below 2025 levels after earlier tariff-driven import front-loading. This normalization, alongside moderating import growth in capital and consumer goods, supports trader positioning around an $800–900 billion full-year outcome as the modal range. Persistent U.S. demand for imported industrial supplies and pharmaceuticals, combined with gradual export recovery in services, keeps the 700–800 billion bucket as the next most favored while capping tail risks above $1 trillion. Key upcoming releases, including July and August figures plus any further trade policy signals, will influence revisions to these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
交易量
$24,009结束日期
2027-02-28市场开放时间
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. trade data show the goods and services deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with first-half cumulative gaps running well below 2025 levels after earlier tariff-driven import front-loading. This normalization, alongside moderating import growth in capital and consumer goods, supports trader positioning around an $800–900 billion full-year outcome as the modal range. Persistent U.S. demand for imported industrial supplies and pharmaceuticals, combined with gradual export recovery in services, keeps the 700–800 billion bucket as the next most favored while capping tail risks above $1 trillion. Key upcoming releases, including July and August figures plus any further trade policy signals, will influence revisions to these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
交易量
$24,009结束日期
2027-02-28市场开放时间
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly U.S. trade data show the goods and services deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with first-half cumulative gaps running well below 2025 levels after earlier tariff-driven import front-loading. This normalization, alongside moderating import growth in capital and consumer goods, supports trader positioning around an $800–900 billion full-year outcome as the modal range. Persistent U.S. demand for imported industrial supplies and pharmaceuticals, combined with gradual export recovery in services, keeps the 700–800 billion bucket as the next most favored while capping tail risks above $1 trillion. Key upcoming releases, including July and August figures plus any further trade policy signals, will influence revisions to these implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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