Recent U.S.-China trade developments center on managed incremental steps rather than a comprehensive tariff agreement. Following the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, the sides established U.S.-China Boards of Trade and Investment to handle bilateral issues, confirmed agricultural purchase commitments (including soybeans and $17 billion annually in U.S. farm goods through 2028), and reached an in-principle understanding to negotiate reciprocal tariff reductions on roughly $30 billion in equivalent products per side. These build on the October 2025 truce framework, which suspended or reduced certain reciprocal and fentanyl-related tariffs through November 2026 while extending exclusion processes. No verifiable public announcement or finalized package has emerged in the weeks since the summit that would constitute a new broad tariff accord. The tight August 31 deadline, with no scheduled high-level bilateral meetings or confirmed negotiating breakthroughs in recent weeks, underpins the 96.7% implied probability that no US-China tariff agreement will be reached. Trade talks typically involve extended congressional consultations, agency reviews, and phased concessions on issues such as market access, technology transfers, and supply-chain security, patterns that rarely resolve in under two weeks. Existing tariffs continue to function as leverage amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, consistent with historical timelines for similar executive actions. A last-minute diplomatic statement, emergency summit announcement, or major concession from either side could still alter the outcome before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于3% 概率
最新
最新
2026-08-31
3% 概率
最新
最新
2026-08-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent U.S.-China trade developments center on managed incremental steps rather than a comprehensive tariff agreement. Following the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, the sides established U.S.-China Boards of Trade and Investment to handle bilateral issues, confirmed agricultural purchase commitments (including soybeans and $17 billion annually in U.S. farm goods through 2028), and reached an in-principle understanding to negotiate reciprocal tariff reductions on roughly $30 billion in equivalent products per side. These build on the October 2025 truce framework, which suspended or reduced certain reciprocal and fentanyl-related tariffs through November 2026 while extending exclusion processes. No verifiable public announcement or finalized package has emerged in the weeks since the summit that would constitute a new broad tariff accord. The tight August 31 deadline, with no scheduled high-level bilateral meetings or confirmed negotiating breakthroughs in recent weeks, underpins the 96.7% implied probability that no US-China tariff agreement will be reached. Trade talks typically involve extended congressional consultations, agency reviews, and phased concessions on issues such as market access, technology transfers, and supply-chain security, patterns that rarely resolve in under two weeks. Existing tariffs continue to function as leverage amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, consistent with historical timelines for similar executive actions. A last-minute diplomatic statement, emergency summit announcement, or major concession from either side could still alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
市场开放时间： Jul 31, 2026, 4:15 PM ET
交易量
$2,410结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Jul 31, 2026, 4:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent U.S.-China trade developments center on managed incremental steps rather than a comprehensive tariff agreement. Following the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, the sides established U.S.-China Boards of Trade and Investment to handle bilateral issues, confirmed agricultural purchase commitments (including soybeans and $17 billion annually in U.S. farm goods through 2028), and reached an in-principle understanding to negotiate reciprocal tariff reductions on roughly $30 billion in equivalent products per side. These build on the October 2025 truce framework, which suspended or reduced certain reciprocal and fentanyl-related tariffs through November 2026 while extending exclusion processes. No verifiable public announcement or finalized package has emerged in the weeks since the summit that would constitute a new broad tariff accord. The tight August 31 deadline, with no scheduled high-level bilateral meetings or confirmed negotiating breakthroughs in recent weeks, underpins the 96.7% implied probability that no US-China tariff agreement will be reached. Trade talks typically involve extended congressional consultations, agency reviews, and phased concessions on issues such as market access, technology transfers, and supply-chain security, patterns that rarely resolve in under two weeks. Existing tariffs continue to function as leverage amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, consistent with historical timelines for similar executive actions. A last-minute diplomatic statement, emergency summit announcement, or major concession from either side could still alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
交易量
$2,410结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Jul 31, 2026, 4:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-China trade developments center on managed incremental steps rather than a comprehensive tariff agreement. Following the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, the sides established U.S.-China Boards of Trade and Investment to handle bilateral issues, confirmed agricultural purchase commitments (including soybeans and $17 billion annually in U.S. farm goods through 2028), and reached an in-principle understanding to negotiate reciprocal tariff reductions on roughly $30 billion in equivalent products per side. These build on the October 2025 truce framework, which suspended or reduced certain reciprocal and fentanyl-related tariffs through November 2026 while extending exclusion processes. No verifiable public announcement or finalized package has emerged in the weeks since the summit that would constitute a new broad tariff accord. The tight August 31 deadline, with no scheduled high-level bilateral meetings or confirmed negotiating breakthroughs in recent weeks, underpins the 96.7% implied probability that no US-China tariff agreement will be reached. Trade talks typically involve extended congressional consultations, agency reviews, and phased concessions on issues such as market access, technology transfers, and supply-chain security, patterns that rarely resolve in under two weeks. Existing tariffs continue to function as leverage amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, consistent with historical timelines for similar executive actions. A last-minute diplomatic statement, emergency summit announcement, or major concession from either side could still alter the outcome before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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