Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 currently tops the LiveBench overall leaderboard at 83.0%, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol at 81.1%, which underpins the 60.5% implied probability favoring Anthropic by end of October. Traders view this lead as stemming from Anthropic's recent model refinements in reasoning and agentic tasks, giving it a durable edge in a benchmark refreshed with objective evaluations across categories. OpenAI's 32.5% reflects ongoing GPT-5 iterations and potential updates that could close the gap before resolution, while lower odds for Google, Meta, and others signal limited near-term breakthroughs. Key upcoming catalysts include any major model drops or capability demonstrations through fall 2026 that could shift the live snapshot.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 61%
OpenAI 32%
DeepSeek <1%
ByteDance <1%
最新
最新
2026-10-31
Anthropic
61%
OpenAI
32%
DeepSeek
1%
ByteDance
1%
Moonshot
1%
Nvidia
1%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
1%
Meituan
1%
StepFun
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Z.ai
1%
Amazon
1%
Meta
1%
1%
Baidu
1%
Tencent
1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Anthropic 61%
OpenAI 32%
DeepSeek <1%
ByteDance <1%
最新
最新
2026-10-31
Anthropic
$4,647 交易量
61%
OpenAI
$1,085 交易量
32%
DeepSeek
$177 交易量
1%
ByteDance
$235 交易量
1%
Moonshot
$217 交易量
1%
Nvidia
$240 交易量
1%
MiniMax
$224 交易量
1%
Mistral
$245 交易量
1%
Meituan
$177 交易量
1%
StepFun
$187 交易量
1%
Xiaomi
$187 交易量
1%
Z.ai
$175 交易量
1%
Amazon
$256 交易量
1%
Meta
$224 交易量
1%
$153 交易量
1%
Baidu
$236 交易量
1%
Tencent
$235 交易量
1%
SpaceXAI
$185 交易量
<1%
Thinky
$207 交易量
<1%
Microsoft
$230 交易量
<1%
Alibaba
$128 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 currently tops the LiveBench overall leaderboard at 83.0%, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol at 81.1%, which underpins the 60.5% implied probability favoring Anthropic by end of October. Traders view this lead as stemming from Anthropic's recent model refinements in reasoning and agentic tasks, giving it a durable edge in a benchmark refreshed with objective evaluations across categories. OpenAI's 32.5% reflects ongoing GPT-5 iterations and potential updates that could close the gap before resolution, while lower odds for Google, Meta, and others signal limited near-term breakthroughs. Key upcoming catalysts include any major model drops or capability demonstrations through fall 2026 that could shift the live snapshot.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
市场开放时间： Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
交易量
$9,649结束日期
2026-10-31市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 currently tops the LiveBench overall leaderboard at 83.0%, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol at 81.1%, which underpins the 60.5% implied probability favoring Anthropic by end of October. Traders view this lead as stemming from Anthropic's recent model refinements in reasoning and agentic tasks, giving it a durable edge in a benchmark refreshed with objective evaluations across categories. OpenAI's 32.5% reflects ongoing GPT-5 iterations and potential updates that could close the gap before resolution, while lower odds for Google, Meta, and others signal limited near-term breakthroughs. Key upcoming catalysts include any major model drops or capability demonstrations through fall 2026 that could shift the live snapshot.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
交易量
$9,649结束日期
2026-10-31市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 currently tops the LiveBench overall leaderboard at 83.0%, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol at 81.1%, which underpins the 60.5% implied probability favoring Anthropic by end of October. Traders view this lead as stemming from Anthropic's recent model refinements in reasoning and agentic tasks, giving it a durable edge in a benchmark refreshed with objective evaluations across categories. OpenAI's 32.5% reflects ongoing GPT-5 iterations and potential updates that could close the gap before resolution, while lower odds for Google, Meta, and others signal limited near-term breakthroughs. Key upcoming catalysts include any major model drops or capability demonstrations through fall 2026 that could shift the live snapshot.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题