No artwork has cleared the $150 million threshold at auction since Jackson Pollock’s Number 7A fetched $181.2 million in May from the S.I. Newhouse collection, leaving the market without fresh ultra-high-end momentum as summer ends. The 2026 spring season delivered several eight- and nine-figure results from major estates, yet subsequent sales have settled into more typical ranges, and traders view the remaining calendar—dominated by November evening sales—as unlikely to produce another comparable trophy before December 31. Historical patterns show such records often cluster around exceptional consignments rather than occurring every season, reinforcing the current 65.5% implied probability on “No.”