Ukrainian forces have conducted targeted long-range strikes on Russian military assets in occupied Crimea as recently as early May 2026, yet ground operations remain focused on incremental advances elsewhere, such as in southern sectors where limited territory has been recovered in recent months. With the June 30, 2026 resolution deadline now weeks away, the absence of any credible path for Ukrainian troops to reach and secure the peninsula accounts for the overwhelming trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Historical patterns of slow frontline movement in the conflict further reinforce this assessment. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an unforeseen rapid southern breakthrough or a sudden diplomatic development altering battlefield dynamics before the cutoff, though such developments would represent a marked departure from established trends.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$657,865 交易量
$657,865 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$657,865 交易量
$657,865 交易量
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Ukrainian forces have conducted targeted long-range strikes on Russian military assets in occupied Crimea as recently as early May 2026, yet ground operations remain focused on incremental advances elsewhere, such as in southern sectors where limited territory has been recovered in recent months. With the June 30, 2026 resolution deadline now weeks away, the absence of any credible path for Ukrainian troops to reach and secure the peninsula accounts for the overwhelming trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Historical patterns of slow frontline movement in the conflict further reinforce this assessment. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an unforeseen rapid southern breakthrough or a sudden diplomatic development altering battlefield dynamics before the cutoff, though such developments would represent a marked departure from established trends.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
交易量
$657,865结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Ukrainian forces have conducted targeted long-range strikes on Russian military assets in occupied Crimea as recently as early May 2026, yet ground operations remain focused on incremental advances elsewhere, such as in southern sectors where limited territory has been recovered in recent months. With the June 30, 2026 resolution deadline now weeks away, the absence of any credible path for Ukrainian troops to reach and secure the peninsula accounts for the overwhelming trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Historical patterns of slow frontline movement in the conflict further reinforce this assessment. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an unforeseen rapid southern breakthrough or a sudden diplomatic development altering battlefield dynamics before the cutoff, though such developments would represent a marked departure from established trends.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
交易量
$657,865结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukrainian forces have conducted targeted long-range strikes on Russian military assets in occupied Crimea as recently as early May 2026, yet ground operations remain focused on incremental advances elsewhere, such as in southern sectors where limited territory has been recovered in recent months. With the June 30, 2026 resolution deadline now weeks away, the absence of any credible path for Ukrainian troops to reach and secure the peninsula accounts for the overwhelming trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Historical patterns of slow frontline movement in the conflict further reinforce this assessment. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an unforeseen rapid southern breakthrough or a sudden diplomatic development altering battlefield dynamics before the cutoff, though such developments would represent a marked departure from established trends.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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