Recent July CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5% has reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve hold at the December FOMC meeting, with the current 3.50-3.75% target range likely unchanged. Persistent price pressures above the 2% PCE target, combined with resilient growth and prior energy shocks, underpin the 26.5% implied probability of a 25 basis point hike, while low odds for cuts reflect limited downside risks in the labor market. Hawkish dissents at the July meeting and forward guidance from officials have elevated year-end tightening odds relative to earlier 2026 forecasts, though softer incoming prints have tempered September hike bets. Traders will closely watch the September 15-16 FOMC and subsequent data releases for shifts in the policy path.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডNo change 68%
25 bps increase 27%
25 bps decrease 6.0%
50+ bps decrease 1.0%
$148,420 Vol.
$148,420 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
6%
No change
68%
25 bps increase
27%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 68%
25 bps increase 27%
25 bps decrease 6.0%
50+ bps decrease 1.0%
$148,420 Vol.
$148,420 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$26,879 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$36,601 Vol.
6%
No change
$35,939 Vol.
68%
25 bps increase
$27,046 Vol.
27%
50+ bps increase
$21,955 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent July CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5% has reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve hold at the December FOMC meeting, with the current 3.50-3.75% target range likely unchanged. Persistent price pressures above the 2% PCE target, combined with resilient growth and prior energy shocks, underpin the 26.5% implied probability of a 25 basis point hike, while low odds for cuts reflect limited downside risks in the labor market. Hawkish dissents at the July meeting and forward guidance from officials have elevated year-end tightening odds relative to earlier 2026 forecasts, though softer incoming prints have tempered September hike bets. Traders will closely watch the September 15-16 FOMC and subsequent data releases for shifts in the policy path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
ভলিউম
$148,420শেষ তারিখ
Dec 9, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent July CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5% has reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve hold at the December FOMC meeting, with the current 3.50-3.75% target range likely unchanged. Persistent price pressures above the 2% PCE target, combined with resilient growth and prior energy shocks, underpin the 26.5% implied probability of a 25 basis point hike, while low odds for cuts reflect limited downside risks in the labor market. Hawkish dissents at the July meeting and forward guidance from officials have elevated year-end tightening odds relative to earlier 2026 forecasts, though softer incoming prints have tempered September hike bets. Traders will closely watch the September 15-16 FOMC and subsequent data releases for shifts in the policy path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ভলিউম
$148,420শেষ তারিখ
Dec 9, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5% has reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve hold at the December FOMC meeting, with the current 3.50-3.75% target range likely unchanged. Persistent price pressures above the 2% PCE target, combined with resilient growth and prior energy shocks, underpin the 26.5% implied probability of a 25 basis point hike, while low odds for cuts reflect limited downside risks in the labor market. Hawkish dissents at the July meeting and forward guidance from officials have elevated year-end tightening odds relative to earlier 2026 forecasts, though softer incoming prints have tempered September hike bets. Traders will closely watch the September 15-16 FOMC and subsequent data releases for shifts in the policy path.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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