Recent July CPI data showing a 3.4% year-over-year rise alongside a weak nonfarm payrolls report has tempered near-term hike odds, leaving the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% and futures markets pricing only modest tightening through year-end. Persistent inflation above the 2% target for over five years, resilient economic growth, and dispersion in the June FOMC dot plot—with several participants projecting rates at or above 4% by late 2026—counterbalance softening labor and price pressures under Chair Kevin Warsh's data-dependent approach lacking forward guidance. The closely balanced 54.5% market-implied probability of no 2026 hike reflects this tension. Key swing factors include the September 15-16 FOMC decision and upcoming August employment and inflation releases, which could shift trader consensus on whether further tightening is required.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডহ্যাঁ
46% সম্ভাবনা
$7,514,334 Vol.
$7,514,334 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
হ্যাঁ
46% সম্ভাবনা
$7,514,334 Vol.
$7,514,334 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent July CPI data showing a 3.4% year-over-year rise alongside a weak nonfarm payrolls report has tempered near-term hike odds, leaving the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% and futures markets pricing only modest tightening through year-end. Persistent inflation above the 2% target for over five years, resilient economic growth, and dispersion in the June FOMC dot plot—with several participants projecting rates at or above 4% by late 2026—counterbalance softening labor and price pressures under Chair Kevin Warsh's data-dependent approach lacking forward guidance. The closely balanced 54.5% market-implied probability of no 2026 hike reflects this tension. Key swing factors include the September 15-16 FOMC decision and upcoming August employment and inflation releases, which could shift trader consensus on whether further tightening is required.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
ভলিউম
$7,514,334শেষ তারিখ
Dec 9, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent July CPI data showing a 3.4% year-over-year rise alongside a weak nonfarm payrolls report has tempered near-term hike odds, leaving the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% and futures markets pricing only modest tightening through year-end. Persistent inflation above the 2% target for over five years, resilient economic growth, and dispersion in the June FOMC dot plot—with several participants projecting rates at or above 4% by late 2026—counterbalance softening labor and price pressures under Chair Kevin Warsh's data-dependent approach lacking forward guidance. The closely balanced 54.5% market-implied probability of no 2026 hike reflects this tension. Key swing factors include the September 15-16 FOMC decision and upcoming August employment and inflation releases, which could shift trader consensus on whether further tightening is required.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ভলিউম
$7,514,334শেষ তারিখ
Dec 9, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent July CPI data showing a 3.4% year-over-year rise alongside a weak nonfarm payrolls report has tempered near-term hike odds, leaving the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% and futures markets pricing only modest tightening through year-end. Persistent inflation above the 2% target for over five years, resilient economic growth, and dispersion in the June FOMC dot plot—with several participants projecting rates at or above 4% by late 2026—counterbalance softening labor and price pressures under Chair Kevin Warsh's data-dependent approach lacking forward guidance. The closely balanced 54.5% market-implied probability of no 2026 hike reflects this tension. Key swing factors include the September 15-16 FOMC decision and upcoming August employment and inflation releases, which could shift trader consensus on whether further tightening is required.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা