Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicates a warm southerly flow ahead of an approaching front will drive New York City highs into the mid-to-upper 80s on May 17, with the official LaGuardia Airport reading resolving the market. Limited morning cloud cover and light winds favor strong diurnal heating, while the urban heat island effect and dry soils amplify surface temperatures by 2–4 °F relative to surrounding suburbs. Slight model spread on afternoon convective development creates the narrow edge between the 86–87 °F and 88–89 °F bins, with any earlier sea-breeze intrusion or thicker cloud deck likely to cap readings near the lower end of that range.