Forecast models point to clear skies and minimal sea-breeze moderation across the Tel Aviv coastal plain on May 17, enabling rapid daytime heating under strong solar insolation. This setup deviates from mid-May climatology, where daily highs at Ben Gurion International Airport typically average 25–28 °C, and has driven the 77.5 % market-implied probability for a maximum of 35 °C or higher. Recent ensemble runs from major global models show consistent support for surface temperatures climbing sharply once onshore flow weakens, with only minor spread in peak timing. Traders are weighting the absence of significant cloud cover or stronger westerlies that normally cap coastal maxima, while acknowledging that any late-morning breeze shift could trim the high by 1–2 °C. Hourly Israel Meteorological Service observations and the next model update cycle remain the key near-term catalysts for price movement.