Iran resumes limited airspace restrictions after missile strikes on UAE

May 31 drops to 27%7%

Following missile strikes, Iran reinstated some airspace restrictions, but these were limited and did not constitute a major closure, causing mixed market reactions.

No official Iranian government or civil aviation announcements of a major airspace closure;

May 8 dips to 2%1%

commercial flights continued operating normally or with limited restrictions not meeting the "major closure" criteria; market

Reuters notes that several airlines (Finnair, British Airways, Pegasus, etc.) are cancelling or rerouting flights to avoid Iranian airspace, but there is no official Iranian

May 7 drops to 0%7%

Reuters notes that several airlines (Finnair, British Airways, Pegasus, etc.) are cancelling or rerouting flights to avoid Iranian airspace, but there is no official Iranian government order closing the airspace, leading traders to push the Yes

Minor temporary uptick to 7% possibly due to short-term rumors or geopolitical concerns, but no verifiable news of a major closure emerged;

May 8 rises to 7%4%

market quickly corrected downward

Partial airspace closures near Strait of Hormuz reported, no broad closure

May 31 jumps to 40%13%

Reports of partial closures for military drills near the Strait of Hormuz increased concerns about escalation, pushing

Market reassesses after Iranian authorities clarify limited airspace restrictions

May 31 drops to 27%11%

Clarifications from Iranian aviation authorities indicated that closures were targeted and temporary, not a full major closure, leading to a market correction downward.

Benzinga reports that after renewed Strait‑of‑Hormuz attacks, Polymarket odds that Iran will enact a “major closure” jump to 52 % from 42 % the day before, prompting traders to

May 7 jumps to 7%6%

Benzinga reports that after renewed Strait‑of‑Hormuz attacks, Polymarket odds that Iran will enact a “major closure” jump to 52 % from 42 % the day before, prompting traders to bid up the Yes

Airlines including Air India and IndiGo reroute flights due to Iran airspace closure

May 31 plunges to 38%24%

Major Indian carriers announced rerouting and cancellations following Iran's airspace closure announcements, confirming operational disruptions but with some uncertainty about the closure's scope, causing

Iran issues a temporary restriction on civilian flights within the Tehran FIR, allowing only pre‑authorized international traffic;

May 15 dips to 4%4%

the notice is brief and does not affect the majority of commercial airports

Market briefly peaked at 27%–39% on speculation or rumors possibly linked to regional tensions or military drills, but no official Iranian airspace closure announcements

May 8 plunges to 10%17%

Market briefly peaked at 27%–39% on speculation or rumors possibly linked to regional tensions or military drills, but no official Iranian airspace closure announcements materialized; absence of qualifying closure news caused

Iran announced the reopening of its western airspace region (covering Shiraz and Isfahan) after a 12‑hour suspension, but kept the eastern sector closed, keeping two major

May 31 surges to 59%18%

Iran announced the reopening of its western airspace region (covering Shiraz and Isfahan) after a 12‑hour suspension, but kept the eastern sector closed, keeping two major airports (IKA, MHD) grounded

Following the partial reopening, the Iranian civil aviation ministry clarified that the suspension of arrivals/departures at IKA and THR would continue until further notice,

May 31 dips to 55%4%

Following the partial reopening, the Iranian civil aviation ministry clarified that the suspension of arrivals/departures at IKA and THR would continue until further notice, pushing the market back up

Iran launches missile and drone strikes on UAE, prompting UAE airspace restrictions

May 31 surges to 62%22%

Iran's missile and drone attacks on the UAE led to renewed UAE airspace restrictions and increased regional tensions, significantly raising the probability of Iran imposing a major airspace closure.

Reports emerge of increased military activity near Iranian airspace

May 31 drops to 31%11%

News of military drills and missile tests near Iranian airspace led to partial airspace restrictions but no major closure, causing a market dip as the risk of a full closure appeared lower.

Iran issues temporary airspace restrictions amid regional tensions

May 31 rises to 42%4%

Iran's Civil Aviation Authority announced temporary restrictions on airspace access affecting commercial flights, signaling heightened security concerns and raising market expectations of a possible broader closure.

No credible reports or official notices from Iranian aviation authorities indicated any planned or ongoing major closure of Iranian airspace by May 8, leading to initial moderate

May 8 dips to 21%3%

No credible reports or official notices from Iranian aviation authorities indicated any planned or ongoing major closure of Iranian airspace by May 8, leading to initial moderate market optimism (around 24%) that a closure might occur

U.S. and Israeli strikes prompt Iran (and Iraq) to close civilian airspace, but the closure is framed as an immediate, conflict‑driven response rather than a sustained, broad

May 15 drops to 14%6%

U.S. and Israeli strikes prompt Iran (and Iraq) to close civilian airspace, but the closure is framed as an immediate, conflict‑driven response rather than a sustained, broad suspension

Middle East airspace shuts after US‑Israel strike on Iran;

May 15 drops to 27%5%

Iran closes its airspace to civilian traffic, prompting fears of a broad closure that pushed the market up

Air India, IndiGo and SpiceJet issue advisories about flight disruptions caused by Iran’s short‑term airspace closure, underscoring that the impact was limited to specific routes

May 15 dips to 11%3%

Air India, IndiGo and SpiceJet issue advisories about flight disruptions caused by Iran’s short‑term airspace closure, underscoring that the impact was limited to specific routes and not a nationwide suspension