Recent US-Israeli airstrikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged Iran's primary uranium enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying much of its highly enriched uranium stockpile and creating multi-year setbacks to weaponization efforts according to IAEA assessments and US intelligence. Iran has not resumed large-scale enrichment, and a June 2026 bilateral memorandum reaffirmed its commitment against nuclear weapons development, while limited IAEA access has prevented verification of any covert recovery or testing activities. These verified disruptions underpin trader consensus that a confirmed nuclear test remains improbable before 2027. Factors that could still alter outcomes include accelerated reconstruction of weaponization facilities, a policy shift by Iran's leadership prioritizing rapid breakout despite detection risks, or unmonitored progress on existing materials before year-end.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
5% সম্ভাবনা
$246,407 Vol.
$246,407 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% সম্ভাবনা
$246,407 Vol.
$246,407 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US-Israeli airstrikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged Iran's primary uranium enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying much of its highly enriched uranium stockpile and creating multi-year setbacks to weaponization efforts according to IAEA assessments and US intelligence. Iran has not resumed large-scale enrichment, and a June 2026 bilateral memorandum reaffirmed its commitment against nuclear weapons development, while limited IAEA access has prevented verification of any covert recovery or testing activities. These verified disruptions underpin trader consensus that a confirmed nuclear test remains improbable before 2027. Factors that could still alter outcomes include accelerated reconstruction of weaponization facilities, a policy shift by Iran's leadership prioritizing rapid breakout despite detection risks, or unmonitored progress on existing materials before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
ভলিউম
$246,407শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US-Israeli airstrikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged Iran's primary uranium enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying much of its highly enriched uranium stockpile and creating multi-year setbacks to weaponization efforts according to IAEA assessments and US intelligence. Iran has not resumed large-scale enrichment, and a June 2026 bilateral memorandum reaffirmed its commitment against nuclear weapons development, while limited IAEA access has prevented verification of any covert recovery or testing activities. These verified disruptions underpin trader consensus that a confirmed nuclear test remains improbable before 2027. Factors that could still alter outcomes include accelerated reconstruction of weaponization facilities, a policy shift by Iran's leadership prioritizing rapid breakout despite detection risks, or unmonitored progress on existing materials before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
ভলিউম
$246,407শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US-Israeli airstrikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged Iran's primary uranium enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying much of its highly enriched uranium stockpile and creating multi-year setbacks to weaponization efforts according to IAEA assessments and US intelligence. Iran has not resumed large-scale enrichment, and a June 2026 bilateral memorandum reaffirmed its commitment against nuclear weapons development, while limited IAEA access has prevented verification of any covert recovery or testing activities. These verified disruptions underpin trader consensus that a confirmed nuclear test remains improbable before 2027. Factors that could still alter outcomes include accelerated reconstruction of weaponization facilities, a policy shift by Iran's leadership prioritizing rapid breakout despite detection risks, or unmonitored progress on existing materials before year-end.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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