Tarcísio de Freitas maintains a commanding lead in the São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republicanos governor, reflected in the market's 81.5% implied probability. Recent surveys from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, and AtlasIntel show him ahead in first-round scenarios by double-digit margins, often exceeding the combined support for main challengers, with strong approval tied to state governance priorities. A fragmented opposition, including Fernando Haddad of the PT polling between 26% and 42%, has raised concerns among Workers' Party strategists about a possible first-round outcome on October 4. Lower probabilities for Kim Kataguiri, Erika Hilton, and Márcio França align with their consistent single-digit or lower polling shares amid limited coalition momentum. Trader consensus incorporates these polling trends and the absence of major recent shifts that would alter the race's trajectory before candidate registration deadlines.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডTarcísio de Freitas 82%
Kim Kataguiri 9.8%
Fernando Haddad 8.5%
Erika Hilton 1.9%
$26,317 Vol.
$26,317 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
82%
Kim Kataguiri
10%
Fernando Haddad
9%
Erika Hilton
2%
Márcio França
<1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 82%
Kim Kataguiri 9.8%
Fernando Haddad 8.5%
Erika Hilton 1.9%
$26,317 Vol.
$26,317 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$11,929 Vol.
82%
Kim Kataguiri
$4,186 Vol.
10%
Fernando Haddad
$3,970 Vol.
9%
Erika Hilton
$3,589 Vol.
2%
Márcio França
$2,644 Vol.
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas maintains a commanding lead in the São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republicanos governor, reflected in the market's 81.5% implied probability. Recent surveys from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, and AtlasIntel show him ahead in first-round scenarios by double-digit margins, often exceeding the combined support for main challengers, with strong approval tied to state governance priorities. A fragmented opposition, including Fernando Haddad of the PT polling between 26% and 42%, has raised concerns among Workers' Party strategists about a possible first-round outcome on October 4. Lower probabilities for Kim Kataguiri, Erika Hilton, and Márcio França align with their consistent single-digit or lower polling shares amid limited coalition momentum. Trader consensus incorporates these polling trends and the absence of major recent shifts that would alter the race's trajectory before candidate registration deadlines.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
ভলিউম
$26,317শেষ তারিখ
Oct 4, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas maintains a commanding lead in the São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republicanos governor, reflected in the market's 81.5% implied probability. Recent surveys from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, and AtlasIntel show him ahead in first-round scenarios by double-digit margins, often exceeding the combined support for main challengers, with strong approval tied to state governance priorities. A fragmented opposition, including Fernando Haddad of the PT polling between 26% and 42%, has raised concerns among Workers' Party strategists about a possible first-round outcome on October 4. Lower probabilities for Kim Kataguiri, Erika Hilton, and Márcio França align with their consistent single-digit or lower polling shares amid limited coalition momentum. Trader consensus incorporates these polling trends and the absence of major recent shifts that would alter the race's trajectory before candidate registration deadlines.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
ভলিউম
$26,317শেষ তারিখ
Oct 4, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas maintains a commanding lead in the São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republicanos governor, reflected in the market's 81.5% implied probability. Recent surveys from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, and AtlasIntel show him ahead in first-round scenarios by double-digit margins, often exceeding the combined support for main challengers, with strong approval tied to state governance priorities. A fragmented opposition, including Fernando Haddad of the PT polling between 26% and 42%, has raised concerns among Workers' Party strategists about a possible first-round outcome on October 4. Lower probabilities for Kim Kataguiri, Erika Hilton, and Márcio França align with their consistent single-digit or lower polling shares amid limited coalition momentum. Trader consensus incorporates these polling trends and the absence of major recent shifts that would alter the race's trajectory before candidate registration deadlines.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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