The current federal funds target range of 3.50-3.75% has held steady through multiple 2026 FOMC meetings amid above-target inflation (July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, with core measures near 2.5-3.3%) and a labor market near maximum employment (unemployment around 4.2-4.3%). Recent data releases, including softer payrolls and elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments, have reinforced trader expectations that policymakers will prioritize price stability over easing, with some FOMC members dissenting in favor of a hike at the July meeting. Fed funds futures and projections reflect this balance, pricing a meaningful chance of one 25-basis-point increase by year-end while the baseline scenario centers on holding near current levels through December. The concentration of probability on 3.75% and 4.0% outcomes captures the market's assessment of these dual-mandate tensions and limited scope for cuts given persistent inflation pressures.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড৩.৭৫% 41.1%
৪.০% 27.0%
৪.২৫% 14.1%
৩.৫% 9.1%
$6,761,552 Vol.
$6,761,552 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
≤১.০%
<1%
১.২৫
1%
১.৫%
1%
১.৭৫%
<1%
২.০%
<1%
২.২৫%
<1%
২.৫%
1%
২.৭৫%
1%
৩.০%
1%
৩.২৫%
1%
৩.৫%
9%
৩.৭৫%
41%
৪.০%
27%
৪.২৫%
14%
≥ ৪.৫%
5%
৩.৭৫% 41.1%
৪.০% 27.0%
৪.২৫% 14.1%
৩.৫% 9.1%
$6,761,552 Vol.
$6,761,552 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
≤১.০%
$244,382 Vol.
<1%
১.২৫
$142,839 Vol.
1%
১.৫%
$146,320 Vol.
1%
১.৭৫%
$148,111 Vol.
<1%
২.০%
$263,437 Vol.
<1%
২.২৫%
$87,683 Vol.
<1%
২.৫%
$172,955 Vol.
1%
২.৭৫%
$61,131 Vol.
1%
৩.০%
$488,822 Vol.
1%
৩.২৫%
$66,074 Vol.
1%
৩.৫%
$202,475 Vol.
9%
৩.৭৫%
$531,856 Vol.
41%
৪.০%
$1,369,292 Vol.
27%
৪.২৫%
$428,209 Vol.
14%
≥ ৪.৫%
$2,407,967 Vol.
5%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).The current federal funds target range of 3.50-3.75% has held steady through multiple 2026 FOMC meetings amid above-target inflation (July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, with core measures near 2.5-3.3%) and a labor market near maximum employment (unemployment around 4.2-4.3%). Recent data releases, including softer payrolls and elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments, have reinforced trader expectations that policymakers will prioritize price stability over easing, with some FOMC members dissenting in favor of a hike at the July meeting. Fed funds futures and projections reflect this balance, pricing a meaningful chance of one 25-basis-point increase by year-end while the baseline scenario centers on holding near current levels through December. The concentration of probability on 3.75% and 4.0% outcomes captures the market's assessment of these dual-mandate tensions and limited scope for cuts given persistent inflation pressures.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
ভলিউম
$6,761,552শেষ তারিখ
Dec 9, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).The current federal funds target range of 3.50-3.75% has held steady through multiple 2026 FOMC meetings amid above-target inflation (July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, with core measures near 2.5-3.3%) and a labor market near maximum employment (unemployment around 4.2-4.3%). Recent data releases, including softer payrolls and elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments, have reinforced trader expectations that policymakers will prioritize price stability over easing, with some FOMC members dissenting in favor of a hike at the July meeting. Fed funds futures and projections reflect this balance, pricing a meaningful chance of one 25-basis-point increase by year-end while the baseline scenario centers on holding near current levels through December. The concentration of probability on 3.75% and 4.0% outcomes captures the market's assessment of these dual-mandate tensions and limited scope for cuts given persistent inflation pressures.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
ভলিউম
$6,761,552শেষ তারিখ
Dec 9, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The current federal funds target range of 3.50-3.75% has held steady through multiple 2026 FOMC meetings amid above-target inflation (July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, with core measures near 2.5-3.3%) and a labor market near maximum employment (unemployment around 4.2-4.3%). Recent data releases, including softer payrolls and elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments, have reinforced trader expectations that policymakers will prioritize price stability over easing, with some FOMC members dissenting in favor of a hike at the July meeting. Fed funds futures and projections reflect this balance, pricing a meaningful chance of one 25-basis-point increase by year-end while the baseline scenario centers on holding near current levels through December. The concentration of probability on 3.75% and 4.0% outcomes captures the market's assessment of these dual-mandate tensions and limited scope for cuts given persistent inflation pressures.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা