The Iranian regime has demonstrated institutional resilience and coercive capacity following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the ensuing U.S.-Israeli military campaign. Security forces, led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, have suppressed protest waves and maintained control over key state functions despite economic disruption and leadership transitions that installed a successor through established clerical procedures. Recent assessments indicate no widespread military defections or loss of territorial authority, even amid ongoing diplomatic negotiations and external pressure. This continuity underpins traders' strong consensus against regime collapse by June 30. Realistic shifts could still arise from sudden internal fractures, escalated internal unrest triggering security breakdowns, or rapid diplomatic concessions that weaken hardliner cohesion before the resolution date.