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Politik·4. Nov. Wahlen

AR-02 Wahlsieger

icon for AR-02 Wahlsieger
Politik·4. Nov. Wahlen

AR-02 Wahlsieger

NEU
Polymarket
NEU

Republikanische Partei

$3,115 Vol.

87%

Demokratische Partei

$6,349 Vol.

12%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican French Hill faces Democratic nominee Chris Jones in the November 2026 general election for Arkansas’s 2nd congressional district. The seat’s R+8 partisan voting index, Hill’s 2024 re-election margin of nearly 17 points, and the district’s inclusion of central Arkansas counties with consistent Republican support underpin trader consensus favoring the GOP at 87%. Primaries concluded in March 2026 with Hill defeating his intra-party challenger and Jones securing the Democratic nomination. National Democratic targeting of the race has produced limited movement in recent polling, while Arkansas’s broader Republican electoral environment and the absence of major district-specific shifts since redistricting continue to anchor probabilities. The contest remains subject to late-cycle turnout and national midterm dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$9,464
Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican French Hill faces Democratic nominee Chris Jones in the November 2026 general election for Arkansas’s 2nd congressional district. The seat’s R+8 partisan voting index, Hill’s 2024 re-election margin of nearly 17 points, and the district’s inclusion of central Arkansas counties with consistent Republican support underpin trader consensus favoring the GOP at 87%. Primaries concluded in March 2026 with Hill defeating his intra-party challenger and Jones securing the Democratic nomination. National Democratic targeting of the race has produced limited movement in recent polling, while Arkansas’s broader Republican electoral environment and the absence of major district-specific shifts since redistricting continue to anchor probabilities. The contest remains subject to late-cycle turnout and national midterm dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$9,464
Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Verwandte

icon for Wird die Republikanische Partei den Sitz des Repräsentantenhauses im AR-01 gewinnen?

Wird die Republikanische Partei den Sitz des Repräsentantenhauses im AR-01 gewinnen?

98%
Ja
icon for Wird die Republikanische Partei den AR-03 Sitz im Repräsentantenhaus gewinnen?

Wird die Republikanische Partei den AR-03 Sitz im Repräsentantenhaus gewinnen?

94%
Ja
icon for Wird die Republikanische Partei den Sitz des Wahlkreises AR-04 im Repräsentantenhaus gewinnen?

Wird die Republikanische Partei den Sitz des Wahlkreises AR-04 im Repräsentantenhaus gewinnen?

95%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„AR-02 Wahlsieger" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 2 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Republikanische Partei" mit 87%, gefolgt von „Demokratische Partei" mit 12%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 87¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 87% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„AR-02 Wahlsieger" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Jan 28, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „AR-02 Wahlsieger" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 2 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „AR-02 Wahlsieger" ist „Republikanische Partei" mit 87%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 87% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Demokratische Partei" mit 12%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „AR-02 Wahlsieger" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.