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Politik·Brasilien

Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: 2. Platz

icon for Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: 2. Platz
Politik·Brasilien

Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: 2. Platz

Flávio Bolsonaro 62%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 17%

Renan Santos 8.8%

Romeu Zema 5.9%

Polymarket

$3,526,008 Vol.

Flávio Bolsonaro 62%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 17%

Renan Santos 8.8%

Romeu Zema 5.9%

Polymarket

$3,526,008 Vol.

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro

$56,396 Vol.

62%

icon for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$67,576 Vol.

17%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$997,973 Vol.

9%

icon for Romeu Zema

Romeu Zema

$256,442 Vol.

6%

icon for Michelle Bolsonaro

Michelle Bolsonaro

$72,836 Vol.

3%

icon for Fernando Haddad

Fernando Haddad

$651,329 Vol.

3%

icon for Camilo Santana

Camilo Santana

$56,064 Vol.

2%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$289,157 Vol.

1%

icon for Geraldo Alckmin

Geraldo Alckmin

$123,364 Vol.

1%

icon for Tarcisio de Freitas

Tarcisio de Freitas

$111,040 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ratinho Júnior

Ratinho Júnior

$642,631 Vol.

<1%

icon for Aldo Rebelo

Aldo Rebelo

$29,825 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tereza Cristina

Tereza Cristina

$2,853 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Bolsonaro

Eduardo Bolsonaro

$48,401 Vol.

<1%

icon for Helder Barbalho

Helder Barbalho

$2,260 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jair Bolsonaro

Jair Bolsonaro

$77,363 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Leite

Eduardo Leite

$40,500 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro's heavy favorite status for second place stems from rapid consolidation of Brazil's right-wing electorate behind the Liberal Party senator, following his father's formal endorsement as the movement's standard-bearer. Recent national polls, including Quaest and Datafolha surveys from early to mid-May, show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a narrow first-round lead near 39 percent, with Flávio trailing closely at 33-37 percent while other right-leaning figures such as Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado remain in low single digits. This fragmentation, combined with sustained evangelical backing and opposition unity, keeps the race polarized ahead of the October 4 first round, making a Lula-Flávio runoff the most probable outcome under current voter intention trends.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$3,526,008
Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro's heavy favorite status for second place stems from rapid consolidation of Brazil's right-wing electorate behind the Liberal Party senator, following his father's formal endorsement as the movement's standard-bearer. Recent national polls, including Quaest and Datafolha surveys from early to mid-May, show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a narrow first-round lead near 39 percent, with Flávio trailing closely at 33-37 percent while other right-leaning figures such as Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado remain in low single digits. This fragmentation, combined with sustained evangelical backing and opposition unity, keeps the race polarized ahead of the October 4 first round, making a Lula-Flávio runoff the most probable outcome under current voter intention trends.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$3,526,008
Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: 2. Platz" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 17 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Flávio Bolsonaro" mit 62%, gefolgt von „Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" mit 17%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 62¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 62% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: 2. Platz" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $3.5 million generiert, seit der Markt am Feb 11, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: 2. Platz" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 17 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: 2. Platz" ist „Flávio Bolsonaro" mit 62%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 62% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" mit 17%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: 2. Platz" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.