Databricks’ decision to pursue additional private capital at a record $188 billion valuation in July 2026, following a $134 billion Series L round earlier in the year, combined with CEO Ali Ghodsi’s June statements labeling 2026 a “terrible year” for an IPO amid competition from larger offerings, underpins the 63% market-implied probability of no public debut by December 31, 2027. Traders are pricing in continued preference for private liquidity events over a crowded calendar. If an IPO occurs, the spread across $150–450 billion+ closing market-cap outcomes (33–38.5%) reflects uncertainty around revenue trajectory—currently exceeding a $5.4 billion annualized run rate with strong AI contributions—and comparable multiples versus peers like Snowflake. No S-1 filing has materialized, leaving timing and valuation dependent on future market conditions and growth execution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertDatabricks IPO Closing Marktkapitalisierung
<150 Mrd. $ 84%
350 Mrd. $–400 Mrd. $ 79%
150–200 Mrd. $ 77%
$400 Mrd.–$450 Mrd. 75%
<150 Mrd. $
84%
150–200 Mrd. $
77%
200–250 Mrd. $
74%
250–300 Mrd. US-Dollar
71%
300 Mrd. $–350 Mrd. $
70%
350 Mrd. $–400 Mrd. $
79%
$400 Mrd.–$450 Mrd.
75%
450 Mrd. $+
68%
Kein Börsengang bis zum 31. Dezember 2027
63%
<150 Mrd. $ 84%
350 Mrd. $–400 Mrd. $ 79%
150–200 Mrd. $ 77%
$400 Mrd.–$450 Mrd. 75%
<150 Mrd. $
84%
150–200 Mrd. $
77%
200–250 Mrd. $
74%
250–300 Mrd. US-Dollar
71%
300 Mrd. $–350 Mrd. $
70%
350 Mrd. $–400 Mrd. $
79%
$400 Mrd.–$450 Mrd.
75%
450 Mrd. $+
68%
Kein Börsengang bis zum 31. Dezember 2027
63%
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 30, 2026, 10:07 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Databricks’ decision to pursue additional private capital at a record $188 billion valuation in July 2026, following a $134 billion Series L round earlier in the year, combined with CEO Ali Ghodsi’s June statements labeling 2026 a “terrible year” for an IPO amid competition from larger offerings, underpins the 63% market-implied probability of no public debut by December 31, 2027. Traders are pricing in continued preference for private liquidity events over a crowded calendar. If an IPO occurs, the spread across $150–450 billion+ closing market-cap outcomes (33–38.5%) reflects uncertainty around revenue trajectory—currently exceeding a $5.4 billion annualized run rate with strong AI contributions—and comparable multiples versus peers like Snowflake. No S-1 filing has materialized, leaving timing and valuation dependent on future market conditions and growth execution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert



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