Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Karachi's May 15 high temperature, with implied probabilities clustered around 34–36°C amid persistent hot and humid conditions reported by the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD). The latest PMD weekly outlook for May 12–18 indicates near-normal to 2°C above-normal temperatures in coastal Sindh, driven by an anti-cyclonic circulation over the Arabian Sea promoting subsidence, clear skies, and limited cooling sea breezes—historical May averages hover at 35°C. Differentiating factors include timing of afternoon sea breeze onset, which could cap peaks at 34–35°C if onshore winds strengthen, versus more continental airflow or delayed moderation pushing toward 36°C or higher; ensemble models like GFS show this spread, with new PMD updates expected today resolving some variability before tomorrow's diurnal heating cycle peaks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Karachi on May 15?
Highest temperature in Karachi on May 15?
36°C or higher 36%
35°C 30%
34°C 25%
33°C 7%
NEU
NEU
15. Mai 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
2%
33°C
7%
34°C
25%
35°C
30%
36°C or higher
36%
36°C or higher 36%
35°C 30%
34°C 25%
33°C 7%
NEU
NEU
15. Mai 2026
26°C or below
$1,013 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$1,088 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$923 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$875 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$919 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$460 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$560 Vol.
2%
33°C
$615 Vol.
7%
34°C
$478 Vol.
25%
35°C
$797 Vol.
30%
36°C or higher
$484 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Karachi's May 15 high temperature, with implied probabilities clustered around 34–36°C amid persistent hot and humid conditions reported by the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD). The latest PMD weekly outlook for May 12–18 indicates near-normal to 2°C above-normal temperatures in coastal Sindh, driven by an anti-cyclonic circulation over the Arabian Sea promoting subsidence, clear skies, and limited cooling sea breezes—historical May averages hover at 35°C. Differentiating factors include timing of afternoon sea breeze onset, which could cap peaks at 34–35°C if onshore winds strengthen, versus more continental airflow or delayed moderation pushing toward 36°C or higher; ensemble models like GFS show this spread, with new PMD updates expected today resolving some variability before tomorrow's diurnal heating cycle peaks.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 13, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Volumen
$8,211Enddatum
15. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 13, 2026, 1:05 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Karachi's May 15 high temperature, with implied probabilities clustered around 34–36°C amid persistent hot and humid conditions reported by the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD). The latest PMD weekly outlook for May 12–18 indicates near-normal to 2°C above-normal temperatures in coastal Sindh, driven by an anti-cyclonic circulation over the Arabian Sea promoting subsidence, clear skies, and limited cooling sea breezes—historical May averages hover at 35°C. Differentiating factors include timing of afternoon sea breeze onset, which could cap peaks at 34–35°C if onshore winds strengthen, versus more continental airflow or delayed moderation pushing toward 36°C or higher; ensemble models like GFS show this spread, with new PMD updates expected today resolving some variability before tomorrow's diurnal heating cycle peaks.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$8,211Enddatum
15. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 13, 2026, 1:05 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Karachi's May 15 high temperature, with implied probabilities clustered around 34–36°C amid persistent hot and humid conditions reported by the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD). The latest PMD weekly outlook for May 12–18 indicates near-normal to 2°C above-normal temperatures in coastal Sindh, driven by an anti-cyclonic circulation over the Arabian Sea promoting subsidence, clear skies, and limited cooling sea breezes—historical May averages hover at 35°C. Differentiating factors include timing of afternoon sea breeze onset, which could cap peaks at 34–35°C if onshore winds strengthen, versus more continental airflow or delayed moderation pushing toward 36°C or higher; ensemble models like GFS show this spread, with new PMD updates expected today resolving some variability before tomorrow's diurnal heating cycle peaks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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