Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in NiMet and international model forecasts for Lagos's highest temperature on May 14, with 32°C leading at 31.5% implied probability amid recent highs averaging 32–33°C over the past week. Differentiating factors include variable convective activity from the intensifying rainy season—above-normal rainfall per NiMet's 2026 seasonal outlook—which could suppress peaks to 31°C via afternoon thunderstorms, versus clearer morning skies allowing 33°C if sea breeze delays. Historical May averages hover at 31°C, but urban heat island effects and fading harmattan often push outliers higher. Watch NiMet's daily bulletin and updated GFS/ECMWF runs by midday May 13 for shifts, as resolution hinges on official Murtala Muhammed Airport observations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Lagos on May 14?
Highest temperature in Lagos on May 14?
32°C 32%
33°C 21%
31°C 19%
30°C 15%
$10,228 Vol.
$10,228 Vol.
27°C or below
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
2%
30°C
15%
31°C
19%
32°C
32%
33°C
21%
34°C
5%
35°C
2%
36°C
2%
37°C or higher
2%
32°C 32%
33°C 21%
31°C 19%
30°C 15%
$10,228 Vol.
$10,228 Vol.
27°C or below
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
2%
30°C
15%
31°C
19%
32°C
32%
33°C
21%
34°C
5%
35°C
2%
36°C
2%
37°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 12, 2026, 12:19 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in NiMet and international model forecasts for Lagos's highest temperature on May 14, with 32°C leading at 31.5% implied probability amid recent highs averaging 32–33°C over the past week. Differentiating factors include variable convective activity from the intensifying rainy season—above-normal rainfall per NiMet's 2026 seasonal outlook—which could suppress peaks to 31°C via afternoon thunderstorms, versus clearer morning skies allowing 33°C if sea breeze delays. Historical May averages hover at 31°C, but urban heat island effects and fading harmattan often push outliers higher. Watch NiMet's daily bulletin and updated GFS/ECMWF runs by midday May 13 for shifts, as resolution hinges on official Murtala Muhammed Airport observations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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