Current meteorological guidance points to an overnight low near 19 °C in Shanghai on May 17, consistent with the market’s strong 68 % weighting on that outcome. Mid-May conditions in the Yangtze River Delta typically feature moderate humidity, light easterly flow off the East China Sea, and limited cloud cover that allows efficient radiational cooling after sunset. Historical station records show overnight minima clustering between 17 °C and 22 °C during this period, with 19 °C occurring most frequently. No significant frontal systems or cold-air advection are expected to shift the temperature materially lower or higher, keeping the distribution tightly centered on 18–19 °C and explaining the market’s clear preference for these two bins. Final resolution will depend on the official 05:00 local reading at the Pudong station.