Ensemble forecasts from the Met Office and ECMWF currently center London’s maximum temperature on May 18 near 14–16 °C under an unsettled Atlantic low-pressure system, which explains the market’s heaviest weighting on 15 °C. This setup favors increased cloud cover and scattered showers that suppress daytime heating relative to typical mid-May climatology of 17–19 °C. Recent model runs show modest spread, with some solutions allowing brief breaks of sun to reach 16 °C while others keep readings capped at 14 °C due to persistent onshore flow. Traders are therefore pricing the 14–16 °C band most heavily, reflecting the narrow uncertainty range typical for a 24-hour forecast horizon ahead of the next official update from the UK Met Office.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in London am 18. Mai?
15°C 42%
16°C 27%
14°C 22%
17°C 5.6%
$40,011 Vol.
$40,011 Vol.
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
5%
14°C
22%
15°C
42%
16°C
27%
17°C
6%
18°C or higher
1%
15°C 42%
16°C 27%
14°C 22%
17°C 5.6%
$40,011 Vol.
$40,011 Vol.
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
5%
14°C
22%
15°C
42%
16°C
27%
17°C
6%
18°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCEnsemble forecasts from the Met Office and ECMWF currently center London’s maximum temperature on May 18 near 14–16 °C under an unsettled Atlantic low-pressure system, which explains the market’s heaviest weighting on 15 °C. This setup favors increased cloud cover and scattered showers that suppress daytime heating relative to typical mid-May climatology of 17–19 °C. Recent model runs show modest spread, with some solutions allowing brief breaks of sun to reach 16 °C while others keep readings capped at 14 °C due to persistent onshore flow. Traders are therefore pricing the 14–16 °C band most heavily, reflecting the narrow uncertainty range typical for a 24-hour forecast horizon ahead of the next official update from the UK Met Office.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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