Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs and consensus outputs, indicate a stable high-pressure system over central Spain with clear skies and light southerly winds favoring strong daytime solar heating on September 14. This setup supports a peak temperature near 34°C at Madrid observing sites, aligning with the market's leading 61.5% implied probability, while the 26% on 35°C reflects minor upside potential from localized urban heat effects or slight model spread. Historical September maxima average 26.8°C, with the all-time Sept 14 record at 34.4°C, providing context for why traders assign low odds above 36°C absent unexpected warming. Official measurements from AEMET stations will resolve the market, with minimal precipitation risk or frontal activity expected to alter the thermal profile overnight.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Madrid am 14. September?
Höchste Temperatur in Madrid am 14. September?
34°C 64%
35°C 27%
33°C 10%
36°C 1.4%
NEU
$13,418 Vol.
NEU
$13,418 Vol.
14. Sep. 2026
29°C oder weniger
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
1%
33°C
10%
34°C
64%
35°C
27%
36°C
1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C oder höher
<1%
34°C 64%
35°C 27%
33°C 10%
36°C 1.4%
NEU
$13,418 Vol.
NEU
$13,418 Vol.
14. Sep. 2026
29°C oder weniger
$238 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$956 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$221 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$369 Vol.
1%
33°C
$2,461 Vol.
10%
34°C
$3,832 Vol.
64%
35°C
$3,940 Vol.
27%
36°C
$459 Vol.
1%
37°C
$336 Vol.
<1%
38°C
$369 Vol.
<1%
39°C oder höher
$236 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs and consensus outputs, indicate a stable high-pressure system over central Spain with clear skies and light southerly winds favoring strong daytime solar heating on September 14. This setup supports a peak temperature near 34°C at Madrid observing sites, aligning with the market's leading 61.5% implied probability, while the 26% on 35°C reflects minor upside potential from localized urban heat effects or slight model spread. Historical September maxima average 26.8°C, with the all-time Sept 14 record at 34.4°C, providing context for why traders assign low odds above 36°C absent unexpected warming. Official measurements from AEMET stations will resolve the market, with minimal precipitation risk or frontal activity expected to alter the thermal profile overnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volumen
$13,418Enddatum
14. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs and consensus outputs, indicate a stable high-pressure system over central Spain with clear skies and light southerly winds favoring strong daytime solar heating on September 14. This setup supports a peak temperature near 34°C at Madrid observing sites, aligning with the market's leading 61.5% implied probability, while the 26% on 35°C reflects minor upside potential from localized urban heat effects or slight model spread. Historical September maxima average 26.8°C, with the all-time Sept 14 record at 34.4°C, providing context for why traders assign low odds above 36°C absent unexpected warming. Official measurements from AEMET stations will resolve the market, with minimal precipitation risk or frontal activity expected to alter the thermal profile overnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$13,418Enddatum
14. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs and consensus outputs, indicate a stable high-pressure system over central Spain with clear skies and light southerly winds favoring strong daytime solar heating on September 14. This setup supports a peak temperature near 34°C at Madrid observing sites, aligning with the market's leading 61.5% implied probability, while the 26% on 35°C reflects minor upside potential from localized urban heat effects or slight model spread. Historical September maxima average 26.8°C, with the all-time Sept 14 record at 34.4°C, providing context for why traders assign low odds above 36°C absent unexpected warming. Official measurements from AEMET stations will resolve the market, with minimal precipitation risk or frontal activity expected to alter the thermal profile overnight.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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