Recent forecast guidance from the Deutscher Wetterdienst and ECMWF ensemble runs indicates a cool air mass advection over southern Germany, with persistent cloud cover and northwest winds limiting daytime heating and positioning Munich’s official maximum temperature near 15–17 °C on May 17. This places the 16 °C outcome at the center of trader consensus, consistent with mid-May climatological norms of 17–19 °C yet tempered by the current synoptic pattern. Model spread remains modest, supporting the elevated implied probability for 16 °C while leaving room for minor revisions should clearing skies allow brief additional warming before sunset.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in München am 17. Mai?
16°C 45%
15°C 33%
17°C 22%
14°C 3.5%
$17,656 Vol.
$17,656 Vol.
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
3%
15°C
33%
16°C
45%
17°C
22%
18°C
2%
19°C
1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
16°C 45%
15°C 33%
17°C 22%
14°C 3.5%
$17,656 Vol.
$17,656 Vol.
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
3%
15°C
33%
16°C
45%
17°C
22%
18°C
2%
19°C
1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMRecent forecast guidance from the Deutscher Wetterdienst and ECMWF ensemble runs indicates a cool air mass advection over southern Germany, with persistent cloud cover and northwest winds limiting daytime heating and positioning Munich’s official maximum temperature near 15–17 °C on May 17. This places the 16 °C outcome at the center of trader consensus, consistent with mid-May climatological norms of 17–19 °C yet tempered by the current synoptic pattern. Model spread remains modest, supporting the elevated implied probability for 16 °C while leaving room for minor revisions should clearing skies allow brief additional warming before sunset.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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