Latest ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and the ECMWF indicate a modest daytime warming trend for Paris on May 17, with afternoon highs most likely reaching 16°C under mostly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. This positioning stems from a gradual clearing after several days of cooler, unstable conditions earlier in the week, when maxima stayed near or below 17°C. Historical mid-May climatology places typical highs around 18–20°C, but current model consensus shows slightly suppressed values due to lingering moisture and limited solar heating. Traders are weighting the 16°C outcome highest because recent model runs have stabilized near that threshold, with only modest upside risk if breaks in cloud cover develop. Resolution hinges on the official daily maximum recorded at Paris-Montsouris, making any late-day forecast revision the next key catalyst.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Paris am 17. Mai?
16°C 66%
17°C 21%
15°C 14%
18°C 1.1%
$76,527 Vol.
$76,527 Vol.
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
14%
16°C
66%
17°C
21%
18°C
1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
16°C 66%
17°C 21%
15°C 14%
18°C 1.1%
$76,527 Vol.
$76,527 Vol.
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
14%
16°C
66%
17°C
21%
18°C
1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Latest ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and the ECMWF indicate a modest daytime warming trend for Paris on May 17, with afternoon highs most likely reaching 16°C under mostly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. This positioning stems from a gradual clearing after several days of cooler, unstable conditions earlier in the week, when maxima stayed near or below 17°C. Historical mid-May climatology places typical highs around 18–20°C, but current model consensus shows slightly suppressed values due to lingering moisture and limited solar heating. Traders are weighting the 16°C outcome highest because recent model runs have stabilized near that threshold, with only modest upside risk if breaks in cloud cover develop. Resolution hinges on the official daily maximum recorded at Paris-Montsouris, making any late-day forecast revision the next key catalyst.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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