Recent ensemble forecasts from European and global models highlight a moderating Atlantic flow over western Europe, with a broad trough keeping daytime maxima in Paris on May 18 clustered between 15–17 °C. This pattern stems from limited daytime heating under variable cloud cover and light winds, yielding modest diurnal ranges around the seasonal climatological mean of roughly 18 °C. Trader consensus currently assigns the highest implied probability to 16 °C, reflecting the tight spread across guidance and the inherent uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any breaks in overcast conditions. Updated model runs through the weekend will refine whether a brief ridge can push readings slightly higher or whether persistent moisture caps the peak.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Paris am 18. Mai?
16°C 34%
15°C 27%
17°C 19%
14°C 10%
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
10%
15°C
27%
16°C
34%
17°C
19%
18°C
4%
19°C or higher
2%
16°C 34%
15°C 27%
17°C 19%
14°C 10%
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
10%
15°C
27%
16°C
34%
17°C
19%
18°C
4%
19°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent ensemble forecasts from European and global models highlight a moderating Atlantic flow over western Europe, with a broad trough keeping daytime maxima in Paris on May 18 clustered between 15–17 °C. This pattern stems from limited daytime heating under variable cloud cover and light winds, yielding modest diurnal ranges around the seasonal climatological mean of roughly 18 °C. Trader consensus currently assigns the highest implied probability to 16 °C, reflecting the tight spread across guidance and the inherent uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any breaks in overcast conditions. Updated model runs through the weekend will refine whether a brief ridge can push readings slightly higher or whether persistent moisture caps the peak.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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