Traders have overwhelmingly positioned on 31°C as Taipei’s highest temperature today, reflecting strong consensus from official Central Weather Bureau forecasts and numerical weather models showing a peak near that threshold under prevailing subtropical high pressure and minimal cloud cover. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-May in northern Taiwan, where historical station data from the past decade record average daily maxima of 28–30°C when sea breezes remain light and no frontal systems approach. Current atmospheric conditions, including stable humidity levels and light easterly flow, support continued warming through the afternoon without significant convective cooling. The market-implied odds capture this high-confidence outlook from real-time model runs, though modest adjustments remain possible if localized urban heat island effects or brief showers alter the official Taipei station reading before sunset.