Ensemble forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a daytime maximum surface temperature for Tokyo hovering near the 28–29 °C threshold under a persistent subtropical ridge that favors modest warm-air advection and limited cloud cover. With market-implied odds split at 45.5 % for 28 °C and 40.0 % for 29 °C, traders are pricing in genuine uncertainty arising from small differences in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island amplification across the dense metropolitan observing network. Official resolution will rest on the highest verified reading at the Tokyo station; any late-day clearing or slight shift in the steering flow could tip the outcome between these two bins before sunset.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Tokio am 17. Mai?
Höchste Temperatur in Tokio am 17. Mai?
28°C 56%
29°C 34%
30°C or higher 5%
20°C or below <1%
$60,089 Vol.
$60,089 Vol.
17. Mai 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
56%
29°C
34%
30°C or higher
5%
28°C 56%
29°C 34%
30°C or higher 5%
20°C or below <1%
$60,089 Vol.
$60,089 Vol.
17. Mai 2026
20°C or below
$2,924 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,793 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$819 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$5,184 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$8,314 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$7,128 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$9,437 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$9,757 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$4,799 Vol.
56%
29°C
$3,529 Vol.
34%
30°C or higher
$6,441 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a daytime maximum surface temperature for Tokyo hovering near the 28–29 °C threshold under a persistent subtropical ridge that favors modest warm-air advection and limited cloud cover. With market-implied odds split at 45.5 % for 28 °C and 40.0 % for 29 °C, traders are pricing in genuine uncertainty arising from small differences in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island amplification across the dense metropolitan observing network. Official resolution will rest on the highest verified reading at the Tokyo station; any late-day clearing or slight shift in the steering flow could tip the outcome between these two bins before sunset.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volumen
$60,089Enddatum
17. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a daytime maximum surface temperature for Tokyo hovering near the 28–29 °C threshold under a persistent subtropical ridge that favors modest warm-air advection and limited cloud cover. With market-implied odds split at 45.5 % for 28 °C and 40.0 % for 29 °C, traders are pricing in genuine uncertainty arising from small differences in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island amplification across the dense metropolitan observing network. Official resolution will rest on the highest verified reading at the Tokyo station; any late-day clearing or slight shift in the steering flow could tip the outcome between these two bins before sunset.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$60,089Enddatum
17. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTEnsemble forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a daytime maximum surface temperature for Tokyo hovering near the 28–29 °C threshold under a persistent subtropical ridge that favors modest warm-air advection and limited cloud cover. With market-implied odds split at 45.5 % for 28 °C and 40.0 % for 29 °C, traders are pricing in genuine uncertainty arising from small differences in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island amplification across the dense metropolitan observing network. Official resolution will rest on the highest verified reading at the Tokyo station; any late-day clearing or slight shift in the steering flow could tip the outcome between these two bins before sunset.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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