Recent forecast model runs from agencies like the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology and ECMWF indicate a moderating influence from an approaching Atlantic frontal system, with increased cloud cover, southwesterly winds of 10–15 m/s, and scattered showers expected to cap daytime heating on September 4. Current surface observations show highs near 21–23°C over the prior 48 hours under partly cloudy conditions, consistent with early-September climatology where Warsaw’s mean daily maximum is approximately 20°C. Uncertainty in the precise timing of thicker cloud layers and any embedded convection creates the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 21–23°C, as even modest variations in insolation or boundary-layer mixing could shift the peak by 1–2°C. Updated model guidance and surface analyses ahead of the event will likely refine these probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Warschau am 4. September?
Höchste Temperatur in Warschau am 4. September?
21°C 32%
22°C 29%
23°C 20%
20°C 10%
NEU
NEU
4. Sep. 2026
18°C oder weniger
4%
19°C
5%
20°C
10%
21°C
32%
22°C
29%
23°C
22%
24°C
4%
25°C
3%
26°C
3%
27°C
2%
28°C oder höher
2%
21°C 32%
22°C 29%
23°C 20%
20°C 10%
NEU
NEU
4. Sep. 2026
18°C oder weniger
$0 Vol.
4%
19°C
$0 Vol.
5%
20°C
$0 Vol.
10%
21°C
$61 Vol.
32%
22°C
$55 Vol.
29%
23°C
$29 Vol.
22%
24°C
$0 Vol.
4%
25°C
$0 Vol.
3%
26°C
$0 Vol.
3%
27°C
$0 Vol.
2%
28°C oder höher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs from agencies like the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology and ECMWF indicate a moderating influence from an approaching Atlantic frontal system, with increased cloud cover, southwesterly winds of 10–15 m/s, and scattered showers expected to cap daytime heating on September 4. Current surface observations show highs near 21–23°C over the prior 48 hours under partly cloudy conditions, consistent with early-September climatology where Warsaw’s mean daily maximum is approximately 20°C. Uncertainty in the precise timing of thicker cloud layers and any embedded convection creates the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 21–23°C, as even modest variations in insolation or boundary-layer mixing could shift the peak by 1–2°C. Updated model guidance and surface analyses ahead of the event will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volumen
$145Enddatum
4. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs from agencies like the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology and ECMWF indicate a moderating influence from an approaching Atlantic frontal system, with increased cloud cover, southwesterly winds of 10–15 m/s, and scattered showers expected to cap daytime heating on September 4. Current surface observations show highs near 21–23°C over the prior 48 hours under partly cloudy conditions, consistent with early-September climatology where Warsaw’s mean daily maximum is approximately 20°C. Uncertainty in the precise timing of thicker cloud layers and any embedded convection creates the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 21–23°C, as even modest variations in insolation or boundary-layer mixing could shift the peak by 1–2°C. Updated model guidance and surface analyses ahead of the event will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$145Enddatum
4. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model runs from agencies like the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology and ECMWF indicate a moderating influence from an approaching Atlantic frontal system, with increased cloud cover, southwesterly winds of 10–15 m/s, and scattered showers expected to cap daytime heating on September 4. Current surface observations show highs near 21–23°C over the prior 48 hours under partly cloudy conditions, consistent with early-September climatology where Warsaw’s mean daily maximum is approximately 20°C. Uncertainty in the precise timing of thicker cloud layers and any embedded convection creates the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 21–23°C, as even modest variations in insolation or boundary-layer mixing could shift the peak by 1–2°C. Updated model guidance and surface analyses ahead of the event will likely refine these probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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