Iran maintains firm military and administrative control over Hormuz Island amid the ongoing 2026 Iran-US conflict, with the IRGC operating checkpoints, enforcing multi-tiered transit rules, and collecting fees from vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Recent developments through mid-August 2026 show Tehran rejecting external demands for changes in passage terms while continuing to assert operational authority over surrounding waters and islands, even as partial ceasefires and negotiations occur. US and allied naval actions have targeted Iranian positions and shipping threats but have not altered Iranian possession of Hormuz or nearby islands. Trader consensus assigns low probability to loss of control by late August because no verified military occupation, seizure, or transfer of the island has taken place, and Iranian forces continue active enforcement despite economic and diplomatic pressures. Upcoming US-Iran talks or further strikes could influence outcomes only if they produce verifiable shifts in territorial control.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertInsel Hormus nicht mehr unter iranischer Kontrolle durch...?
Insel Hormus nicht mehr unter iranischer Kontrolle durch...?
$61,669 Vol.
31. Aug. 2026
31. August
1%
$61,669 Vol.
31. August
$49,933 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains firm military and administrative control over Hormuz Island amid the ongoing 2026 Iran-US conflict, with the IRGC operating checkpoints, enforcing multi-tiered transit rules, and collecting fees from vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Recent developments through mid-August 2026 show Tehran rejecting external demands for changes in passage terms while continuing to assert operational authority over surrounding waters and islands, even as partial ceasefires and negotiations occur. US and allied naval actions have targeted Iranian positions and shipping threats but have not altered Iranian possession of Hormuz or nearby islands. Trader consensus assigns low probability to loss of control by late August because no verified military occupation, seizure, or transfer of the island has taken place, and Iranian forces continue active enforcement despite economic and diplomatic pressures. Upcoming US-Iran talks or further strikes could influence outcomes only if they produce verifiable shifts in territorial control.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Volumen
$61,669Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains firm military and administrative control over Hormuz Island amid the ongoing 2026 Iran-US conflict, with the IRGC operating checkpoints, enforcing multi-tiered transit rules, and collecting fees from vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Recent developments through mid-August 2026 show Tehran rejecting external demands for changes in passage terms while continuing to assert operational authority over surrounding waters and islands, even as partial ceasefires and negotiations occur. US and allied naval actions have targeted Iranian positions and shipping threats but have not altered Iranian possession of Hormuz or nearby islands. Trader consensus assigns low probability to loss of control by late August because no verified military occupation, seizure, or transfer of the island has taken place, and Iranian forces continue active enforcement despite economic and diplomatic pressures. Upcoming US-Iran talks or further strikes could influence outcomes only if they produce verifiable shifts in territorial control.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$61,669Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains firm military and administrative control over Hormuz Island amid the ongoing 2026 Iran-US conflict, with the IRGC operating checkpoints, enforcing multi-tiered transit rules, and collecting fees from vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Recent developments through mid-August 2026 show Tehran rejecting external demands for changes in passage terms while continuing to assert operational authority over surrounding waters and islands, even as partial ceasefires and negotiations occur. US and allied naval actions have targeted Iranian positions and shipping threats but have not altered Iranian possession of Hormuz or nearby islands. Trader consensus assigns low probability to loss of control by late August because no verified military occupation, seizure, or transfer of the island has taken place, and Iranian forces continue active enforcement despite economic and diplomatic pressures. Upcoming US-Iran talks or further strikes could influence outcomes only if they produce verifiable shifts in territorial control.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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