ICE enforcement data through mid-2026 shows formal removals running at a pace consistent with roughly 400,000–500,000 for the calendar or fiscal year, driven by record monthly arrests and expanded interior operations alongside continued border encounters. Capacity limits on detention, processing, and personnel have kept totals well below the administration’s earlier 1 million annual target, even after funding increases and policy changes such as expanded use of expedited removal and termination of certain temporary protections. Self-deportation programs and deterrence effects contribute to broader departures but factor less directly into official removal counts that typically resolve these markets. Recent court rulings and operational surges have sustained momentum without altering the fundamental resource constraints traders cite when pricing the leading outcome.