Recent Statistics Canada estimates confirm Canada's population fell to 41.47 million on January 1, 2026, extending a -0.2% quarterly decline from late 2025—the first annual drop on record since the 1940s—driven by a sharp exodus of over 495,000 non-permanent residents like temporary workers and students amid federal caps. Yet trader consensus prices "No" at 51.5%, reflecting projections from the Parliamentary Budget Officer for flat zero growth in 2026 under the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan's 380,000 annual permanent resident targets and reduced temporary arrivals, suggesting stabilization after the initial adjustment. Tipping factors include upcoming quarterly population estimates through year-end, potential further non-permanent declines from economic pressures, or policy reversals boosting inflows.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWird Kanadas Bevölkerungsrückgang im Jahr 2026 der bisher größte sein?
Wird Kanadas Bevölkerungsrückgang im Jahr 2026 der bisher größte sein?
Ja
NEU
NEU
30. Apr. 2027
Ja
NEU
NEU
30. Apr. 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Statistics Canada estimates confirm Canada's population fell to 41.47 million on January 1, 2026, extending a -0.2% quarterly decline from late 2025—the first annual drop on record since the 1940s—driven by a sharp exodus of over 495,000 non-permanent residents like temporary workers and students amid federal caps. Yet trader consensus prices "No" at 51.5%, reflecting projections from the Parliamentary Budget Officer for flat zero growth in 2026 under the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan's 380,000 annual permanent resident targets and reduced temporary arrivals, suggesting stabilization after the initial adjustment. Tipping factors include upcoming quarterly population estimates through year-end, potential further non-permanent declines from economic pressures, or policy reversals boosting inflows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
Volumen
$1,512Enddatum
30. Apr. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Statistics Canada estimates confirm Canada's population fell to 41.47 million on January 1, 2026, extending a -0.2% quarterly decline from late 2025—the first annual drop on record since the 1940s—driven by a sharp exodus of over 495,000 non-permanent residents like temporary workers and students amid federal caps. Yet trader consensus prices "No" at 51.5%, reflecting projections from the Parliamentary Budget Officer for flat zero growth in 2026 under the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan's 380,000 annual permanent resident targets and reduced temporary arrivals, suggesting stabilization after the initial adjustment. Tipping factors include upcoming quarterly population estimates through year-end, potential further non-permanent declines from economic pressures, or policy reversals boosting inflows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$1,512Enddatum
30. Apr. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Statistics Canada estimates confirm Canada's population fell to 41.47 million on January 1, 2026, extending a -0.2% quarterly decline from late 2025—the first annual drop on record since the 1940s—driven by a sharp exodus of over 495,000 non-permanent residents like temporary workers and students amid federal caps. Yet trader consensus prices "No" at 51.5%, reflecting projections from the Parliamentary Budget Officer for flat zero growth in 2026 under the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan's 380,000 annual permanent resident targets and reduced temporary arrivals, suggesting stabilization after the initial adjustment. Tipping factors include upcoming quarterly population estimates through year-end, potential further non-permanent declines from economic pressures, or policy reversals boosting inflows.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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