Canada’s population has already recorded multiple quarters of decline in late 2025 and early 2026, driven by sharp reductions in non-permanent residents after federal caps on international students, post-graduation work permits, and temporary foreign workers. The 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan sets permanent resident admissions at 380,000 while targeting only 385,000 new temporary residents—down dramatically from prior peaks—under the Carney government’s goal of bringing the non-permanent resident share below 5 percent of the total population by the end of 2027. Statistics Canada data show net outflows of non-permanent residents continuing through the first quarter of 2026, producing the first annual population contraction on record and further quarterly drops. These policy settings, with no announced reversal, sustain the conditions for an outsized full-year decline in 2026 relative to prior periods.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWird Kanadas Bevölkerungsrückgang im Jahr 2026 der bisher größte sein?
Wird Kanadas Bevölkerungsrückgang im Jahr 2026 der bisher größte sein?
Ja
85% Chance
NEU
NEU
30. Apr. 2027
Ja
85% Chance
NEU
NEU
30. Apr. 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Canada’s population has already recorded multiple quarters of decline in late 2025 and early 2026, driven by sharp reductions in non-permanent residents after federal caps on international students, post-graduation work permits, and temporary foreign workers. The 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan sets permanent resident admissions at 380,000 while targeting only 385,000 new temporary residents—down dramatically from prior peaks—under the Carney government’s goal of bringing the non-permanent resident share below 5 percent of the total population by the end of 2027. Statistics Canada data show net outflows of non-permanent residents continuing through the first quarter of 2026, producing the first annual population contraction on record and further quarterly drops. These policy settings, with no announced reversal, sustain the conditions for an outsized full-year decline in 2026 relative to prior periods.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
Volumen
$1,813Enddatum
30. Apr. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Canada’s population has already recorded multiple quarters of decline in late 2025 and early 2026, driven by sharp reductions in non-permanent residents after federal caps on international students, post-graduation work permits, and temporary foreign workers. The 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan sets permanent resident admissions at 380,000 while targeting only 385,000 new temporary residents—down dramatically from prior peaks—under the Carney government’s goal of bringing the non-permanent resident share below 5 percent of the total population by the end of 2027. Statistics Canada data show net outflows of non-permanent residents continuing through the first quarter of 2026, producing the first annual population contraction on record and further quarterly drops. These policy settings, with no announced reversal, sustain the conditions for an outsized full-year decline in 2026 relative to prior periods.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$1,813Enddatum
30. Apr. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Canada’s population has already recorded multiple quarters of decline in late 2025 and early 2026, driven by sharp reductions in non-permanent residents after federal caps on international students, post-graduation work permits, and temporary foreign workers. The 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan sets permanent resident admissions at 380,000 while targeting only 385,000 new temporary residents—down dramatically from prior peaks—under the Carney government’s goal of bringing the non-permanent resident share below 5 percent of the total population by the end of 2027. Statistics Canada data show net outflows of non-permanent residents continuing through the first quarter of 2026, producing the first annual population contraction on record and further quarterly drops. These policy settings, with no announced reversal, sustain the conditions for an outsized full-year decline in 2026 relative to prior periods.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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