**The dominant 91% market-implied probability for 1,250+ U.S. tornadoes in 2026 reflects the preliminary Storm Prediction Center tally of 1,443 reports through September 27.** This already surpasses historical annual averages near 1,200–1,300, driven by elevated spring and summer activity—including a record-setting Illinois season—and a late-September outbreak that produced over 90 confirmed tornadoes across multiple states. Official counts undergo post-survey revisions that can trim preliminary figures, yet the current surplus leaves little room for the total to fall below the threshold even with typical October–December activity. Unusually quiet fall conditions or unusually large downward adjustments would be required to alter the outcome.