Recent polling for the October 27, 2026 Knesset election shows Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing list led by former general Ofer Winter, hovering near Israel’s 3.25% electoral threshold after submitting its slate in early September. Surveys from early September project between zero and four seats, with the party drawing primarily from Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit voters while facing warnings from Netanyahu and Smotrich about potential vote fragmentation. The closing of party lists reduced undecided respondents and produced fluctuating results across pollsters, keeping outcomes sensitive to small turnout shifts within the right-wing bloc. Trader probabilities reflect this narrow range and polling variability rather than any decisive momentum.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert2,5-3,25% 39%
5 %+ 34%
<2,5 % 28%
3,25-4% 26%
NEU
NEU
30. Nov. 2026
<2,5 %
47%
2,5-3,25%
39%
3,25-4%
26%
4-5%
33%
5 %+
34%
2,5-3,25% 39%
5 %+ 34%
<2,5 % 28%
3,25-4% 26%
NEU
NEU
30. Nov. 2026
<2,5 %
$20 Vol.
47%
2,5-3,25%
$0 Vol.
39%
3,25-4%
$0 Vol.
26%
4-5%
$13 Vol.
33%
5 %+
$0 Vol.
34%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling for the October 27, 2026 Knesset election shows Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing list led by former general Ofer Winter, hovering near Israel’s 3.25% electoral threshold after submitting its slate in early September. Surveys from early September project between zero and four seats, with the party drawing primarily from Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit voters while facing warnings from Netanyahu and Smotrich about potential vote fragmentation. The closing of party lists reduced undecided respondents and produced fluctuating results across pollsters, keeping outcomes sensitive to small turnout shifts within the right-wing bloc. Trader probabilities reflect this narrow range and polling variability rather than any decisive momentum.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Markt eröffnet: Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
Volumen
$33Enddatum
30. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling for the October 27, 2026 Knesset election shows Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing list led by former general Ofer Winter, hovering near Israel’s 3.25% electoral threshold after submitting its slate in early September. Surveys from early September project between zero and four seats, with the party drawing primarily from Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit voters while facing warnings from Netanyahu and Smotrich about potential vote fragmentation. The closing of party lists reduced undecided respondents and produced fluctuating results across pollsters, keeping outcomes sensitive to small turnout shifts within the right-wing bloc. Trader probabilities reflect this narrow range and polling variability rather than any decisive momentum.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volumen
$33Enddatum
30. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for the October 27, 2026 Knesset election shows Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing list led by former general Ofer Winter, hovering near Israel’s 3.25% electoral threshold after submitting its slate in early September. Surveys from early September project between zero and four seats, with the party drawing primarily from Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit voters while facing warnings from Netanyahu and Smotrich about potential vote fragmentation. The closing of party lists reduced undecided respondents and produced fluctuating results across pollsters, keeping outcomes sensitive to small turnout shifts within the right-wing bloc. Trader probabilities reflect this narrow range and polling variability rather than any decisive momentum.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen