**Recent polling averages position United Torah Judaism (UTJ) vote share most likely in the 6-7% range ahead of the October 27 election.** Multiple surveys from early to mid-September show the Ashkenazi Haredi party projected at 7-9 Knesset seats, consistent with roughly that national vote share after accounting for the 3.25% threshold and surplus agreements. Support has remained stable despite coalition tensions over Haredi military draft exemptions and recent internal list adjustments, including factional shifts within Agudat Yisrael and Degel HaTorah. UTJ’s core voter base among Lithuanian and Hasidic communities has shown little movement, with no major new developments shifting turnout or alliances in the final weeks before ballots close. The market’s secondary probability on 5-6% reflects the narrow band of recent poll variation, while higher or lower outcomes remain lower probability given the party’s consistent historical performance and limited crossover appeal.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert6-7% 55%
5-6 % 39%
<5 % 7%
7–8 % 7%
NEU
NEU
30. Nov. 2026
<5 %
7%
5-6 %
37%
6-7%
55%
7–8 %
7%
8 %+
4%
6-7% 55%
5-6 % 39%
<5 % 7%
7–8 % 7%
NEU
NEU
30. Nov. 2026
<5 %
$186 Vol.
7%
5-6 %
$204 Vol.
37%
6-7%
$160 Vol.
55%
7–8 %
$134 Vol.
7%
8 %+
$285 Vol.
4%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).**Recent polling averages position United Torah Judaism (UTJ) vote share most likely in the 6-7% range ahead of the October 27 election.** Multiple surveys from early to mid-September show the Ashkenazi Haredi party projected at 7-9 Knesset seats, consistent with roughly that national vote share after accounting for the 3.25% threshold and surplus agreements.
Support has remained stable despite coalition tensions over Haredi military draft exemptions and recent internal list adjustments, including factional shifts within Agudat Yisrael and Degel HaTorah. UTJ’s core voter base among Lithuanian and Hasidic communities has shown little movement, with no major new developments shifting turnout or alliances in the final weeks before ballots close. The market’s secondary probability on 5-6% reflects the narrow band of recent poll variation, while higher or lower outcomes remain lower probability given the party’s consistent historical performance and limited crossover appeal.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Markt eröffnet: Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
Volumen
$970Enddatum
27. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).**Recent polling averages position United Torah Judaism (UTJ) vote share most likely in the 6-7% range ahead of the October 27 election.** Multiple surveys from early to mid-September show the Ashkenazi Haredi party projected at 7-9 Knesset seats, consistent with roughly that national vote share after accounting for the 3.25% threshold and surplus agreements.
Support has remained stable despite coalition tensions over Haredi military draft exemptions and recent internal list adjustments, including factional shifts within Agudat Yisrael and Degel HaTorah. UTJ’s core voter base among Lithuanian and Hasidic communities has shown little movement, with no major new developments shifting turnout or alliances in the final weeks before ballots close. The market’s secondary probability on 5-6% reflects the narrow band of recent poll variation, while higher or lower outcomes remain lower probability given the party’s consistent historical performance and limited crossover appeal.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volumen
$970Enddatum
27. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...**Recent polling averages position United Torah Judaism (UTJ) vote share most likely in the 6-7% range ahead of the October 27 election.** Multiple surveys from early to mid-September show the Ashkenazi Haredi party projected at 7-9 Knesset seats, consistent with roughly that national vote share after accounting for the 3.25% threshold and surplus agreements. Support has remained stable despite coalition tensions over Haredi military draft exemptions and recent internal list adjustments, including factional shifts within Agudat Yisrael and Degel HaTorah. UTJ’s core voter base among Lithuanian and Hasidic communities has shown little movement, with no major new developments shifting turnout or alliances in the final weeks before ballots close. The market’s secondary probability on 5-6% reflects the narrow band of recent poll variation, while higher or lower outcomes remain lower probability given the party’s consistent historical performance and limited crossover appeal.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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