**Traders price the <5 outcome highest because the official Khamenei.ir accounts have maintained a pattern of infrequent posting in recent months following the leadership transition.** Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as Supreme Leader and his early-August military and security appointments have been communicated primarily through official channels rather than high-volume X activity. No major diplomatic summits, religious observances, or crisis-related statements are scheduled for the week of August 21–28 that would typically trigger additional posts. The accounts’ historical cadence—often limited to a handful of statements per week—supports the current distribution, with higher ranges reflecting only modest probability of an unexpected announcement or escalation in regional tensions.