Current forecasts for Chongqing on September 4 center on a minimum temperature near 24–26°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, light southerly or variable winds, and moderate humidity levels around 50–70%. Official and ensemble model guidance from sources such as GFS and local meteorological services indicates stable high-pressure conditions with limited nocturnal cooling, typical for the region’s subtropical monsoon climate in early September. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities across 20–28°C reflects modest uncertainty in exact overnight radiative cooling, cloud timing, and urban heat retention, while the low odds on extremes align with historical September minima rarely falling below 22°C or exceeding 27°C absent major frontal systems. Updated model runs and local station observations in the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range.