Recent National Weather Service model runs for Dallas show the August 31 overnight low centered in the low-to-mid 80s, with ensemble spreads creating tight market odds near 45% for the 80–83°F bins. Key scientific drivers include residual summer heat advection under weak high pressure, variable cloud cover affecting radiative cooling, and light wind patterns that limit mixing overnight. Diurnal temperature ranges typical for late August in north Texas add further uncertainty, as do minor differences in dew point forecasts. Updated model guidance and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely narrow resolution criteria around the 76–85°F thresholds.