**Official forecasts position 34–36°C as the most probable range for Taipei’s maximum temperature on August 29, consistent with the market’s heaviest trading around 35°C (47.5%) and 36°C (26.5%).** Central Weather Bureau guidance and ensemble models show daytime highs of 33–34°C under mostly cloudy skies with afternoon convective showers, typical of late-summer subtropical conditions where high humidity and solar heating trigger thunderstorms that limit further warming through cloud shading and evaporative cooling. Recent model runs have converged on this outcome after earlier variability, with some international guidance briefly showing 35°C peaks before precipitation develops; historical August climatology (average highs near 32°C) supports the modest upward bias traders have priced in, while low probabilities above 37°C reflect the low likelihood of clear, drier conditions persisting through peak heating hours. Updated NWP guidance ahead of resolution will be the key near-term driver.