Current forecasts from National Weather Service models place Miami’s overnight low for June 12 in the upper 70s, aligning with the market’s leading 78–79 °F bin at 31.5 % implied probability. Typical mid-June climatology features minimum temperatures of 76–78 °F at Miami International Airport, driven by persistent maritime tropical air and limited nocturnal cooling under high humidity. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms expected through the period introduce modest uncertainty in radiative cooling and boundary-layer mixing, supporting the broad distribution across 74–83 °F outcomes. Traders appear to weigh recent stable high-pressure patterns and the absence of significant frontal intrusions against normal seasonal variability, with any late-day sea-breeze or convective timing shifts capable of nudging the official low across bin thresholds.